Influence of food losses on the negative effects of the nutrition of the population in Bulgaria

A third of all food produced globally by weight is lost or wasted between farm and fork – that's more than 1 billion tonnes. Converted into calories, this equates to 24% of the world's food supplies. Food loss refers to loss at or near the farm and in the supply chain. For the present study, it is important to know the losses of agricultural products that occur between the level at which production is recorded and the household, i.e., storage and transportation. The prevalence of overweight and obesity is emerging as a problem in Bulgarian society as well. Revealing the relationship between food loss from agricultural products and the prevalence of obesity is the aim of the study. The data source is the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Data from Food Balances and from Food Security and Nutrition were used. The data refer to the period 2000–2021. For per capita supply, all four FAO indicators were used: Food supply quantity (kg/capita/year), Food supply (kcal/capita/day), Protein supply quantity (g/capita/day), Fat supply quantity (g/capita/day), separately for vegetal and animal products. One indicator was used as a measure of population nutrition: Prevalence of obesity in the adult population (18 years and older). For the last indicator, there is data only for the period 2000–2016, so our analysis is limited to this period. The main hypothesis is that food losses affect the per capita supply, which in turn affects the nutrition of the population and the prevalence of obesity. A simultaneous equations model (SEM) was used to model these relationships and process data. After evaluation of the SEM model, the following results were obtained: Losses of vegetal products directly influence the prevalence of obesity in the adult population (18 years and older). The relationship is negative – greater losses of vegetal products lead to a lower prevalence of obesity in the adult population (18 years and older), which coincides with preliminary expectations. Losses of animal products indirectly influence the prevalence of obesity in the adult population (18 years and older). The relationship is mediated by food supply (kcal/capita/day). The relationship between losses of animal products and the mediator variable is positive; greater losses lead to greater per capita supply. This contradicts preliminary expectations that greater losses will lead to a smaller per capita supply. The relationship between per capita supply and the prevalence of obesity in the adult population (18 years and older) is positive; larger per capita supply leads to a higher prevalence of obesity in the adult population, which coincides with preliminary expectations. Some of the mediator variables have an independent influence on the dependent variables.