A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short‐Term Unemployment

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1. The Phillips Curve and Inflation
   by thebusinesscycleblog in The business cycle blog on 2016-05-21 23:08:29

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1. Francesco D'Amuri & Marta De Philippis & Elisa Guglielminetti & Salvatore Lo Bello, 2021. "Natural unemployment and activity rates: flow-based determinants and implications for price dynamics," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 599, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
2. Duncan, Roberto & Martínez-García, Enrique, 2019. "New perspectives on forecasting inflation in emerging market economies: An empirical assessment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1008-1031.
   • Roberto Duncan & Enrique Martínez García, 2018. "New Perspectives on Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Market Economies: An Empirical Assessment," Globalization Institute Working Papers 338, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
3. Hillebrand, Eric & Lukas, Manuel & Wei, Wei, 2021. "Bagging weak predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 237-254.
   • Manuel Lukas & Eric Hillebrand, 2014. "Bagging Weak Predictors," CREATES Research Papers 2014-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
   • Eric Hillebrand & Manuel Lukas & Wei Wei, 2020. "Bagging Weak Predictors," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 16/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
4. Miguel Saldarriaga & Pablo del Aguila & Kevin Gershy-Damet, 2017. "Has inflation targeting anchored inflation expectations? Evidence from Peru," Working Papers 103, Peruvian Economic Association.
5. Carlos Medel, 2018. "An econometric analysis on survey-data-based anchoring of inflation expectations in Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 21(2), pages 128-152, August.
   • Carlos Medel, 2018. "Econometric Analysis on Survey-data-based Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 825, Central Bank of Chile.
6. Ball, Laurence & Chari, Anusha & Mishra, Prachi, 2016. "Understanding Inflation in India," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(1), pages 1-45.
   • Laurence Ball & Anusha Chari & Prachi Mishra, 2016. "Understanding Inflation in India," NBER Working Papers 22948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
7. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," NIPE Working Papers 04/2019, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
   • Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," CEF.UP Working Papers 1902, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
   • Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M. F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2019, Bank of Finland.
8. Robert G. Murphy, 2019. "Can the Phillips Curve Explain Inflation over the Past Half-Century?," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(2), pages 137-149, May.
9. Drago Bergholt & Francesco Furlanetto & Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2023. "Did monetary policy kill the Phillips Curve? Some simple arithmetics," Working Paper 2023/2, Norges Bank.
10. Antonio Ribba, 2020. "Is the unemployment–inflation trade‐off still alive in the Euro Area and its member countries? It seems so," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(9), pages 2393-2410, September.
    • Antonio Ribba, 2019. "Is the unemployment inflation trade-off still alive in the Euro Area and its member countries? It seems so," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 143, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
11. Günes Kamber & Madhusudan Mohanty & James Morley, 2020. "What drives inflation in advanced and emerging market economies?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 111, pages 21-36, Bank for International Settlements.
12. Karimova, Amira & Simsek, Esra & Orhan, Mehmet, 2020. "Policy implications of the Lucas Critique empirically tested along the global financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 153-172.
13. Fabian Eser & Peter Karadi & Philip R. Lane & Laura Moretti & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 50-85, September.
    • Eser, Fabian & Lane, Philip & Moretti, Laura & Osbat, Chiara & Karadi, Peter, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224627, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Eser, Fabian & Karadi, Peter & Lane, Philip R. & Moretti, Laura & Osbat, Chiara, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," Working Paper Series 2400, European Central Bank.
14. Emmanuel De Veirman, 2022. "How Does the Phillips Curve Slope Vary with Repricing Rates?," Working Papers 735, DNB.
    • De Veirman, Emmanuel, 2023. "How does the Phillips curve slope vary with repricing rates?," Working Paper Series 2804, European Central Bank.
15. Davide Romaniello, 2022. "Unemployment gap, isteresi e disoccupazione di lunga durata: quale ruolo nella comprensione dell'inflazione? (Unemployment gap, hysteresis and long-term unemployment: which role in explaining inflatio," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 75(299), pages 267-283.
16. D’Amuri, Francesco & De Philippis, Marta & Guglielminetti, Elisa & Lo Bello, Salvatore, 2022. "Slack and prices during Covid-19: Accounting for labor market participation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
17. Vijay VICTOR & Maria FEKETE FARKAS & Florence JEESON, 2018. "Inflation unemployment dynamics in Hungary – A structured cointegration and vector error correction model approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(615), S), pages 195-204, Summer.
18. Consolo, Agostino & Da Silva, António Dias, 2019. "The euro area labour market through the lens of the Beveridge curve," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
19. Saten Kumar & Hassan Afrouzi & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(2 (Fall)), pages 151-225.
    • Saten Kumar & Hassan Afrouzi & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand," NBER Working Papers 21814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
20. William D. Craighead, 2019. "Hysteresis In A New Keynesian Model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1082-1097, April.
    • Craighead, William, 2016. "Hysteresis in a New Keynesian Model," MPRA Paper 70777, University Library of Munich, Germany.
21. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2023. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 364-390.
    • Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," Working Paper Series 2471, European Central Bank.
22. Francesco De Palma & KSamuel Ligonnière & Jamel Saadaoui & Yann Thommen, 2022. "The Role of Wage Bargaining Institutions in the Phillips curve Flattening," Working Papers REM 2022/0236, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • De Palma Francesco & Ligonnière Samuel & Saadaoui Jamel & Thommen Yann, 2022. "The role of wage bargaining institutions in the Phillips curve flattening;," Working Papers of BETA 2022-21, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
23. Harendra Behera & Garima Wahi & Muneesh Kapur, 2017. "Phillips Curve Relationship in India: Evidence from State-Level Analysis," Working Papers id:11973, eSocialSciences.
    • Behera, Harendra & Wahi, Garima & Kapur, Muneesh, 2017. "Phillips Curve Relationship in India: Evidence from State-Level Analysis," MPRA Paper 80737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
24. Hany Guirguis & Vaneesha Boney Dutra & Zoe McGreevy, 2022. "The impact of global economies on US inflation: A test of the Phillips curve," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(3), pages 575-592, July.
25. Simone Auer, 2018. "Labour market conditions and wage inflation in CEE economies," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 460, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
26. Wesley Janson & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2021. "Late Payment Fees and Nonpayment in Rental Markets, and Implications for Inflation Measurement: Theoretical Considerations and Evidence," Working Papers 20-22R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 06 Nov 2023.
27. Bobeica, Elena & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2021. "The changing link between labor cost and price inflation in the United States," Working Paper Series 2583, European Central Bank.
28. Behera, Harendra & Wahi, Garima & Kapur, Muneesh, 2018. "Phillips curve relationship in an emerging economy: Evidence from India," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 116-126.
29. Forbes, Kristin, 2019. "Inflation Dynamics: Dead, Dormant, or Determined Abroad?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14195, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Kristin Forbes, 2019. "Inflation Dynamics: Dead, Dormant, or Determined Abroad?," NBER Working Papers 26496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
30. Willi Semmler & Alexander Haider, 2016. "The perils of debt deflation in the Euro area: a multi regime model," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 257-278, May.
    • Semmler, Willi & Haider, Alexander, 2015. "The perils of debt deflation in the euro area: A multi regime model," ZEW Discussion Papers 15-071, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
31. Oraby, Ramy, 2022. "The Possible Unemployment Cost of Average Inflation Below a Credible Target. A Replication Study of Svensson (American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2015)," Journal of Comments and Replications in Economics (JCRE), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 1(2022-2), pages 1-21.
32. E. Simsek & M. Orhan & F. Macit, 2017. "Effect of Government Expenditure on GDP in the Turkish Economy," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 9(2), pages 69-76, September.
33. Popova, Olga & See, Sarah Grace & Nikolova, Milena & Otrachshenko, Vladimir, 2023. "The Societal Costs of Inflation and Unemployment," IZA Discussion Papers 16541, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Popova, Olga & See, Sarah Grace & Nikolova, Milena & Otrachshenko, Vladimir, 2023. "The societal costs of inflation and unemployment," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1341, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
34. Conti, Antonio M., 2021. "Resurrecting the Phillips Curve in Low-Inflation Times," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 172-195.
35. Yhlas SOVBETOV, 2019. "Phillips Curve Estimation During Tranquil and Recessionary Periods: Evidence From Panel Analysis," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 69(1), pages 23-41, June.
36. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2021. "The reaction of inflation forecasts to news about the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 256-264.
37. Czudaj, Robert L., 2023. "Expectation Formation and the Phillips Curve Revisited," MPRA Paper 119478, University Library of Munich, Germany.
38. Christophe Blot, 2022. "La hausse de l’inflation peut-elle modifier l’ancrage des anticipations ?," Post-Print hal-03794336, HAL.
39. Lieberknecht, Philipp, 2018. "Financial Frictions, the Phillips Curve and Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 89429, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Lieberknecht, Philipp, 2019. "Financial frictions,the Phillips curve and monetary policy," Discussion Papers 47/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
40. Laurence M. Ball & Daniel Leigh & Prachi Mishra, 2022. "Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era," NBER Working Papers 30613, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Laurence M. Ball & Mr. Daniel Leigh & Ms. Prachi Mishra, 2022. "Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era," IMF Working Papers 2022/208, International Monetary Fund.
41. Boyd, Laura & Keenan, Enda & McIndoe-Calder, Tara, 2023. "Earnings growth under high inflation," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 89-123, September.
42. Ernst, Ekkehard & Semmler, Willi & Haider, Alexander, 2017. "Debt-deflation, financial market stress and regime change – Evidence from Europe using MRVAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 115-139.
    • Ernst, Ekkehard & Semmler, Willi & Haider, Alexander, 2016. "Debt deflation, financial market stress and regime change: Evidence from Europe using MRVAR," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-030, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
43. Antonio M. Conti & Concetta Gigante, 2018. "Weakness in Italy�s core inflation and the Phillips curve: the role of labour and financial indicators," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 466, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
44. Christophe Blot, 2022. "La hausse de l’inflation peut-elle modifier l’ancrage des anticipations ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03794336, HAL.
45. Kristin J. Forbes, 2019. "How Have Shanghai, Saudi Arabia, and Supply Chains Affected U.S. Inflation Dynamics?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 101(1), pages 27-44.
46. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2018. "Inflation in Europe after the Great Recession," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 202-213.
47. Christian Friedrich & Peter Selcuk, 2022. "The Impact of Globalization and Digitalization on the Phillips Curve," Staff Working Papers 22-7, Bank of Canada.
48. Bonam, Dennis & de Haan, Jakob & van Limbergen, Duncan, 2021. "Time-varying wage Phillips curves in the euro area with a new measure for labor market slack," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 157-171.
    • Dennis Bonam & Jakob de Haan & Duncan van Limbergen, 2018. "Time-varying wage Phillips curves in the euro area with a new measure for labor market slack," DNB Working Papers 587, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
49. Rafi Melnick & Till Strohsal, 2016. "Disinflation and the Phillips Curve: Israel 1986-2015," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-039, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
50. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_012 is not listed on IDEAS
51. Luis J. Álvarez & Maria Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez‐Loscos, 2021. "Inflation comovements in advanced economies: Facts and drivers," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 485-509, February.
52. Yhlas SOVBETOV & Muhittin KAPLAN, 2019. "Empirical examination of the stability of expectations – Augmented Phillips Curve for developing and developed countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(619), S), pages 63-78, Summer.
53. Franz Xaver Zobl & Martin Ertl, 2021. "The Condemned Live Longer – New Evidence of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Central and Eastern Europe," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 671-699, September.
54. J. David López-Salido & Francesca Loria, 2020. "Inflation at Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-013, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
55. Federico Bassi & Andrea Boitani, 2021. "Monetary and macroprudential policy: The multiplier effects of cooperation," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def110, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
56. Armelius, Hanna & Solberger, Martin & Spånberg, Erik & Österholm, Pär, 2023. "The Evolution of the Natural Rate of Interest – Evidence from the Scandinavian Countries," Working Papers 2023:8, Örebro University, School of Business.
57. Robert G Murphy & Adam Rohde, 2018. "Rational Bias in Inflation Expectations," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 153-171, January.
    • Robert G. Murphy & Adam Rohde, 2014. "Rational Bias in Inflation Expectations," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 857, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 25 Oct 2015.
58. Kristen Tauber & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2020. "A Growth-Augmented Phillips Curve," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2020(16), pages 1-6, July.
59. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Ayşegül Şahin, 2022. "The Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off Revisited: The Phillips Curve in COVID Times," NBER Working Papers 29785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Aysegul Sahin, 2024. "The Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off Revisited: The Phillips Curve in COVID Times," Staff Reports 1086, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
60. Güneş Kamber & Madhusudan Mohanty & James Morley, 2020. "Have the driving forces of inflation changed in advanced and emerging market economies?," BIS Working Papers 896, Bank for International Settlements.
61. Hinterlang, Natascha & Tänzer, Alina, 2021. "Optimal monetary policy using reinforcement learning," Discussion Papers 51/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
62. Kapur, Muneesh, 2018. "Macroeconomic Policies and Transmission Dynamics in India," MPRA Paper 88566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
63. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation," NBER Working Papers 25987, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
64. Melnick, Rafi & Strohsal, Till, 2017. "Disinflation in steps and the Phillips curve: Israel 1986–2015," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 145-161.
65. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," CEF.UP Working Papers 1902, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    • Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M. F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," Research Discussion Papers 12/2019, Bank of Finland.
    • Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M. F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2019, Bank of Finland.
    • Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," NIPE Working Papers 04/2019, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
66. Robert G. Murphy, 2016. "Why Has Inflation Been So Unresponsive to Economic Activity in Recent Years?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 920, Boston College Department of Economics.
67. William Gatt, 2016. "Time variation, asymmetry and threshold effect in Malta's Phillips curve," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
68. Eliana R. González-Molano & Ramón Hernández-Ortega & Edgar Caicedo-García & Nicolás Martínez-Cortés & Jose Vicente Romero & Anderson Grajales-Olarte, 2020. "Nueva Clasificación del BANREP de la Canasta del IPC y revisión de las medidas de Inflación Básica en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1122, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
69. Szafranek, Karol, 2021. "Disentangling the sources of inflation synchronization. Evidence from a large panel dataset," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 229-245.
70. Kristin Forbes, 2019. "Has globalization changed the inflation process?," BIS Working Papers 791, Bank for International Settlements.
71. López-Salido, J David & Loria, Francesca, 2019. "Inflation at Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 14074, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
72. Jonathan H. Wright, 2023. "Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Panel Data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-015, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
73. Christian Garciga & Randal J. Verbrugge & Saeed Zaman, 2024. "The Effect of Component Disaggregation on Measures of the Median and Trimmed-Mean CPI," Working Papers 24-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
74. Owen Grech & Noel Rapa, 2016. "STREAM: A structural macro-econometric model of the Maltese economy," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
75. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2020. "Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 393-428, December.
76. Malikane Christopher, 2023. "A Traditional Nominal Wage Phillips Curve: Theory and Evidence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(324), pages 108-121, March.
77. Matteo Cacciatore & Dmitry Matveev & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2022. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Experimentation: Empirical Challenges and Insights from Academic Literature," Discussion Papers 2022-9, Bank of Canada.
78. Alex Domash & Lawrence H. Summers, 2022. "How Tight are U.S. Labor Markets?," NBER Working Papers 29739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.