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Modelling and forecasting exchange-rate volatility with ARCH-type models

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  • Kaehler, Jürgen
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    Abstract

    The statistical analysis of short-run exchange-rate data shows that there is strong heteroskedasticity and serial dependence of volatility. In addition, the empirical distributions are leptokurtic. The model of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) seems to be ideally suited to model these empirical regularities because the model incorporates autocorrelated volatility explicity and it also implies a leptokurtic distribution. The GARCH model does indeed achieve a reasonably good fit to the exchange-rate data. However, the GARCH model is not able to outperform the naive forecasts of volatility which use the current estimate of the variance from the past data. --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 91-02.

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    Date of creation: 1991
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:9102

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    1. Taylor, Stephen J., 1987. "Forecasting the volatility of currency exchange rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 159-170.
    2. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
    3. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
    4. Wiggins, James B., 1987. "Option values under stochastic volatility: Theory and empirical estimates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 351-372, December.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    6. Garman, Mark B. & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1983. "Foreign currency option values," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 231-237, December.
    7. Scott, Louis O., 1987. "Option Pricing when the Variance Changes Randomly: Theory, Estimation, and an Application," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(04), pages 419-438, December.
    8. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    9. Johnson, Herb & Shanno, David, 1987. "Option Pricing when the Variance Is Changing," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 143-151, June.
    10. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
    11. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    12. Praetz, Peter D, 1972. "The Distribution of Share Price Changes," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(1), pages 49-55, January.
    13. Chesney, Marc & Scott, Louis, 1989. "Pricing European Currency Options: A Comparison of the Modified Black-Scholes Model and a Random Variance Model," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(03), pages 267-284, September.
    14. Ball, Clifford A. & Torous, Walter N., 1983. "A Simplified Jump Process for Common Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 53-65, March.
    15. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-55, January.
    16. Melino, Angelo & Turnbull, Stuart M., 1990. "Pricing foreign currency options with stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 239-265.
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