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Überlebenschancen neu gegründeter Firmen: Ein evolutionstheoretischer Zugang

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  • Bruckner, Eberhard
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    Abstract

    In der vorliegenden Studie wird eine partielle Neutralisierung der Wirkungen der Selektion in einer ersten Wachstumsphase nach Gründung des Unternehmens als Ursache für die verminderte Sterblichkeit diagnostiziert. Zugleich erklärt sie die Möglichkeit des Eintritts und Überlebens mit suboptimalen Eintrittsgrößen. Das Problemfeld des „new firm survival“ wird mit Hilfe eines stochastischen Evolutionsmodells untersucht, das in der Physik seit Beginn der 80er Jahre entwickelt wurde, um das Problem des Überlebens neuer Varianten in komplexen adaptiven Systemen zu untersuchen. Das Forschungskonzept der vorliegenden Studie entwickelt ein Zwei–Phasen–Modell des Wachstums einer neuen Firma, das durch Anwendung des stochastischen Instrumentariums in ein Zwei–Phasen–Modell des Überlebens transformiert wird, das den Aussagegehalt der Hypothese der „liability of adolescence“ wiedergibt. Wie in den herkömmlichen Untersuchungen zur „liability of adolescence“ fungiert im Zusammenspiel mit den beiden Phasen die Eintrittsgröße als relevanter Indikator des „new firm survival“. Im evolutionstheoretischen Analyseschema sind darüber hinaus die Produktbewertung der Firmen durch die Kunden sowie ein weiterer Indikator unerlässlich, der den objektiv vorhandenen Eintrittsanspruch einer neuen Firma anzeigt, dargestellt durch dasjenige Marktsegment, das sie zunächst besetzen muss, bevor sie (relativ) abgesichert überleben kann. -- The present study identifies a partial neutralization of the effects of selection within an initial growth phase after the entry process as the cause for the diminished mortality; this also explains the possibility of entry and survival with suboptimal entry sizes. The problem field of new firm survival is investigated using a stochastic evolutionary model developed in evolutionary physics in the early 1980s, to deal with the problem of generation and survival of new variants in complex adaptive systems. The research concept of the present study develops a two-phasemodel of growth of a newly founded firm which, by application of the stochastic instrument, is transformed into a two-phase-model of survival representing the content of the “liability-of-adolescence”-hypothesis. As in the traditional investigations on the “liability of adolescence” in the interplay with the two phases entry size is a relevant indicator of new firm survival. The evolutionary schema claims in addition for every analysis an evaluation of product attributes of the firms by the customers as well as a further indicator displaying an entry claim of the newly founded firm represented by the very market segment which has to be occupied in order to be able to survive in relative security.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB) in its series Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Civil Society and Transnational Networks with number SP IV 2003-105.

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    Date of creation: 2003
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:wzbctn:spiv2003105

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    References

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    18. repec:wop:humbsf:1996-65 is not listed on IDEAS
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