A Simulation Model for the Demographic Transition in Germany : Data Requirements, Model Structure and Calibration
AbstractAll countries in the European Union stand at the fore of a phenomenal demographic transition. Especially Germany will realize an enormous aging of its population. The reasons for this development are twofold: On the one hand, the number of elderly will more than double over the coming decades. On the other hand, since fertility rates are projected to stay at a low level, the number of workers available to pay the elderly their government-guaranteed pension and health care benefits will decline. Due to very generous social security systems this aging process is expected to put enormous pressure on future government expenses. To address the consequences of population aging in Germany, this paper develops a dynamic, intergenerational demographic life-cycle model. The model features immigration, age-specific fertility, life span extension and life span uncertainty. Cohorts within the model differ in their human capital profiles and leave bequests arising from incomplete annuitization. We also incorporate the German pension, health care and long-term care system. After introducing the theoretical model, we simulate the transition path including reforms of the pension system imposed by the so called "Riester" reform and keeping current immigration constant. The results are presented for the case of a closed and a small open economy. --
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics in its series W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers with number 48.
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Sanderring 2, D-97070 Würzburg
Phone: (0931) 31-2901
Fax: (0931) 31-2101
Web page: http://www.vwl.uni-wuerzburg.de/en/no_cache/lehrstuehle/vwl1/home/
More information through EDIRC
Demographic transition; overlapping generations (OLG); computable general equilibrium models (CGE);
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
- D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Beetsma, Roel & Bettendorf, Leon & Broer, Peter, 2003.
"The budgeting and economic consequences of ageing in the Netherlands,"
Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 987-1013, September.
- Roel Beetsma, 2001. "The Budgeting and Economic Consequences of Ageing in The Netherlands," CESifo Working Paper Series 630, CESifo Group Munich.
- Beetsma, R.M.W.J. & Bettendorf , L.J.H. & Broer, D.P., 2003. "The budgeting and economic consequences of ageing in the Netherlands," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-383717, Tilburg University.
- Fehr, Hans, 1999.
"Pension reform during the demographic transition,"
W.E.P. - WÃ¼rzburg Economic Papers
8, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
- Bonin, Holger, 2001. "Will it Last? An Assessment of the 2001 German Pension Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 343, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Markus M. Grabka & Joachim R. Frick & Volker Meinhardt & Jürgen Schupp, 2003. "Ältere Menschen in Deutschland: Einkommenssituation und ihr möglicher Beitrag zur Finanzierung der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(12), pages 190-195.
- Fehr, Hans & Halder, Gitte & Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2003. "A simulation model for the demographic transition in the OECD: Data requirements, model structure and calibration," W.E.P. - WÃ¼rzburg Economic Papers 45, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
- Martin Distelkamp & Prof. Dr. Bernd Meyer & Marc Ingo Wolter, 2005. "Gesundheitsprämie versus Bürgerversicherung – Beschäftigungseffekte der Finanzierungsreform im Gesundheitswesen," GWS Discussion Paper Series 05-2, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
- Peichl, Andreas, 2005. "Die Evaluation von Steuerreformen durch Simulationsmodelle," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche DiskussionsbeitrÃ¤ge 05-1, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.