IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/wuewep/48.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Simulation Model for the Demographic Transition in Germany: Data Requirements, Model Structure and Calibration

Author

Listed:
  • Jokisch, Sabine
  • Halder, Gitte
  • Fehr, Hans

Abstract

All countries in the European Union stand at the fore of a phenomenal demographic transition. Especially Germany will realize an enormous aging of its population. The reasons for this development are twofold: On the one hand, the number of elderly will more than double over the coming decades. On the other hand, since fertility rates are projected to stay at a low level, the number of workers available to pay the elderly their government-guaranteed pension and health care benefits will decline. Due to very generous social security systems this aging process is expected to put enormous pressure on future government expenses. To address the consequences of population aging in Germany, this paper develops a dynamic, intergenerational demographic life-cycle model. The model features immigration, age-specific fertility, life span extension and life span uncertainty. Cohorts within the model differ in their human capital profiles and leave bequests arising from incomplete annuitization. We also incorporate the German pension, health care and long-term care system. After introducing the theoretical model, we simulate the transition path including reforms of the pension system imposed by the so called "Riester" reform and keeping current immigration constant. The results are presented for the case of a closed and a small open economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jokisch, Sabine & Halder, Gitte & Fehr, Hans, 2004. "A Simulation Model for the Demographic Transition in Germany: Data Requirements, Model Structure and Calibration," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 48, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wuewep:48
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/22341/1/wep48.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Holger Bonin, 2001. "Will it Last? An Assessment of the 2001 German Pension Reform," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 26(4), pages 547-564, October.
    2. Reil-Held, Anette, 2000. "Einkommen und Sterblichkeit in Deutschland : leben Reiche länger?," Papers 00-14, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    3. Fehr, Hans & Halder, Gitte & Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2003. "A simulation model for the demographic transition in the OECD: Data requirements, model structure and calibration," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 45, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    4. Reil-Held, Anette, 2000. "Einkommen und Sterblichkeit in Deutschland: Leben Reiche länger?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 00-14, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    5. Markus M. Grabka & Joachim R. Frick & Volker Meinhardt & Jürgen Schupp, 2003. "Ältere Menschen in Deutschland: Einkommenssituation und ihr möglicher Beitrag zur Finanzierung der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(12), pages 190-195.
    6. Beetsma, Roel & Bettendorf, Leon & Broer, Peter, 2003. "The budgeting and economic consequences of ageing in the Netherlands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 987-1013, September.
    7. Fehr, Hans, 2000. " Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 419-443, June.
    8. Hans Fehr, 2000. "Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 419-443, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peichl, Andreas, 2005. "Die Evaluation von Steuerreformen durch Simulationsmodelle," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 05-1, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    2. Martin Distelkamp & Prof. Dr. Bernd Meyer & Marc Ingo Wolter, 2005. "Gesundheitsprämie versus Bürgerversicherung – Beschäftigungseffekte der Finanzierungsreform im Gesundheitswesen," GWS Discussion Paper Series 05-2, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    3. Busl, Claudia & Iliewa, Zwetelina & Jokisch, Sabine & Kappler, Marcus & Roscher, Thomas & Schindler, Felix & Schleer, Frauke, 2012. "Endbericht an das Bundesministerium der Finanzen zum Forschungsauftrag fe 11/11: "Sparen und Investieren vor dem Hintergrund des demografischen Wandels"," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 110554, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fehr, Hans & Habermann, Christian, 2006. "Pension reform and demographic uncertainty: the case of Germany," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 69-90, March.
    2. Hans FEHR, 2010. "Pension Reform with Variable Retirment Age," EcoMod2010 259600055, EcoMod.
    3. Erling Holmøy & Kyrre Stensnes, 2008. "Will the Norwegian pension reform reach its goals? An integrated micro-macro assessment," Discussion Papers 557, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    4. Holmøy, Erling & Strøm, Birger, 2013. "Computable General Equilibrium Assessments of Fiscal Sustainability in Norway," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 105-158, Elsevier.
    5. Woodland, A., 2016. "Taxation, Pensions, and Demographic Change," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 713-780, Elsevier.
    6. Kallweit Manuel, 2009. "Rentenreform und Rentenzugangsentscheidung – Eine numerische Gleichgewichtsanalyse / Pension Reform and Endogenous Retirement – a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(4), pages 426-449, August.
    7. Jochem de Bresser & Raquel Fonseca & Pierre-Carl Michaud, 2016. "Retirement Behavior in the U.S. and Europe," Cahiers de recherche 1609, Chaire de recherche Industrielle Alliance sur les enjeux économiques des changements démographiques.
    8. Fehr, Hans, 2016. "CGE modeling social security reforms," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 475-494.
    9. Fehr, Hans & Halder, Gitte & Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2003. "A simulation model for the demographic transition in the OECD: Data requirements, model structure and calibration," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 45, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    10. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    11. Hans Fehr & Christian Habermann, 2008. "Risk Sharing and Efficiency Implications of Progressive Pension Arrangements," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(2), pages 419-443, June.
    12. Jess Heinrich, 2006. "Steuerfinanzierung von Sozialleistungen? / Tax Funding of Social Security Benefits?: Verteilungs- und Effizienzeffekte einer Umfinanzierung von Sozialleistungen in der gesetzlichen Renten- und Kranken," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 226(4), pages 436-462, August.
    13. Akin Serife Nuray, 2012. "Immigration, Fiscal Policy, and Welfare in an Aging Population," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-45, July.
    14. Jukka Lassila & Tarmo Valkonen, 2007. "The Finnish Pension Reform of 2005," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 32(1), pages 75-94, January.
    15. Michael Berlemann & Marco Oestmann & Marcel Thum, 2014. "Demographic change and bank profitability: empirical evidence from German savings banks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 79-94, January.
    16. Richard Hauser & Holger Stein, 2004. "Inequality of the Distribution of Personal Wealth in Germany 1973-1998," Microeconomics 0401005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Friedrich Breyer & Jan Marcus, 2010. "Income and Longevity Revisited: Do High-Earning Women Live Longer?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1037, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Jan Hagemejer & Marcin Bielecki & Karolina Goraus & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2014. "The Sooner The Better - The Welfare Effects of the Retirement Age Increase Under Various Pension Schemes," EcoMod2014 6868, EcoMod.
    19. Hans-Martin von Gaudecker & Rembrandt D. Scholz, 2006. "Lifetime earnings and life expectancy," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-008, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    20. Richard Hauser & Holger Stein, 2004. "Inequality of the Distribution of Personal Wealth in Germany 1973 - 1998," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_398, Levy Economics Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic transition; overlapping generations (OLG); computable general equilibrium models (CGE);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:wuewep:48. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/viwuede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.