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Is Generalized Trust Stable over Time?

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  • Roth, Felix

Abstract

Using a unique international database on generalized trust - constructed from more than 1,000 individual national surveys containing more than 1 million individual observations - covering 142 countries across the world for the 41-year time period from 1980 to 2020, this paper finds strong evidence that generalized trust at the country level is not stable over time. In fact, the paper finds a pronounced intertemporal variation of generalized trust over time in many countries across the globe. The paper's findings lend greater credibility to the theory of "experiential" trust over that of "cultural" trust, which leads the author to argue for using standard and dynamic panel estimation approaches in future analyses of generalized trust outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Roth, Felix, 2024. "Is Generalized Trust Stable over Time?," Hamburg Discussion Papers in International Economics 15, University of Hamburg, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:uhhhdp:15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1997. "Does Social Capital Have an Economic Payoff? A Cross-Country Investigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(4), pages 1251-1288.
    2. Felix Roth, 2022. "Social Capital, Trust, and Economic Growth," Contributions to Economics, in: Intangible Capital and Growth, chapter 0, pages 167-185, Springer.
    3. Martin Paldam, 2011. "Generalized Trust: The Macro Perspective," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Lorenzo Sacconi & Giacomo Degli Antoni (ed.), Social Capital, Corporate Social Responsibility, Economic Behaviour and Performance, chapter 12, pages 331-357, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Lijphart, Arend, 1971. "Comparative Politics and the Comparative Method," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 682-693, September.
    5. Guido Tabellini, 2008. "Presidential Address Institutions and Culture," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 255-294, 04-05.
    6. Felix Roth, 2022. "Does Too Much Trust Hamper Economic Growth?," Contributions to Economics, in: Intangible Capital and Growth, chapter 0, pages 141-165, Springer.
    7. Christian Bjørnskov, 2012. "How Does Social Trust Affect Economic Growth?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(4), pages 1346-1368, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Generalized Trust; Intertemporal Variation; Stability; Panel Data; Causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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