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The term structure of interest rates when the growth rate is unobservable

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  • Riedel, Frank

Abstract

The effect of incomplete information on the term structure of interest rates is examined in the framework of a pure exchange economy under uncertainty. When the growth rate of the aggregate endowment is known, the term structure is flat and deterministic. When agents do not observe the (constant) growth rate, interest rates are stochastic and the term structure turns out to be linearly decreasing. As a possible explanation of this astonishing fact, we suggest that rational and risk-averse investors consider long-term bonds as a good hedge against unfavorable realizations of the growth rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Riedel, Frank, 1997. "The term structure of interest rates when the growth rate is unobservable," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,78, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:199778
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-592.
    2. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-384, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term Structure of Interest Rates; Incomplete Information;

    JEL classification:

    • D5 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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