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Corona shutdown and bankruptcy risk

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  • Holtemöller, Oliver
  • Muradoglu, Yaz Gulnur

Abstract

This paper investigates the consequences of shutdowns during the Corona crisis on the risk of bankruptcy for firms in Germany and United Kingdom. We use financial statements from the period 2014 to 2018 to predict how pervasive risk of bankruptcy becomes for micro, small, medium, and large firms due to shutdown measures. We estimate distress for firms using their capacity to service their debt. Our results indicate that under three months of shutdown almost all firms in shutdown industries face high risk of bankruptcy. In Germany, about 99% of firms in shutdown industries and in the UK about 98% of firms in shutdown industries are predicted to be under distress. The furlough schemes reduce the risk of bankruptcy only marginally to 97% of firms in shutdown industries in Germany and 95% of firms in shutdown industries in the United Kingdom in case of a three-month shutdown. In sectors that are not shutdown under conservative estimates of contagion of sales losses, our results indicate considerable risk of widespread bankruptcies ranging from 76% of firms in Germany to 69% of firms in the United Kingdom. These early findings suggest that the impact of corona crisis on corporate sector via shutdowns can be severe and subsequent policy should be designed accordingly.

Suggested Citation

  • Holtemöller, Oliver & Muradoglu, Yaz Gulnur, 2020. "Corona shutdown and bankruptcy risk," IWH Online 3/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhonl:32020
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/219390/1/1701135906.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gilson, Stuart C, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Capital Structure Choice: Evidence from Financially Distressed Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 161-196, March.
    2. Matthias Kahl, 2002. "Economic Distress, Financial Distress, and Dynamic Liquidation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 135-168, February.
    3. James, Christopher, 1995. "When Do Banks Take Equity in Debt Restructurings?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 1209-1234.
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    Cited by:

    1. Müller, Steffen, 2021. "Insolvenzen in der Corona-Krise," IWH Policy Notes 2/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Lars P. Feld & Martin Beznoska & Oliver Holtemöller & Hans-Peter Burghof & Ulrike Neyer & Clemens Fuest & Friedrich Heinemann & Thomas König, 2020. "Record Debts to Combat Covid-19 Consequences – What Can the State Afford?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(08), pages 03-32, August.
    3. Hartwell, Christopher A. & Devinney, Timothy, 2021. "Populism, political risk, and pandemics: The challenges of political leadership for business in a post-COVID world," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(4).
    4. Bukalska Elżbieta & Maziarczyk Anna, 2023. "Impact of financial constraints and financial distress on cash holdings," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 59(1), pages 13-31, March.
    5. Holtemöller, Oliver & Rieth, Malte, 2021. "Economic mobility likely to increase significantly after relaxation - but also number of COVID-19 cases," IWH Policy Notes 3/2021 (en), Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

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