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Konvergieren oder divergieren die regionalen Pro-Kopf-Einkommen in Westdeutschland? Eine empirische Untersuchung anhand von Markov-Ketten

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  • Bode, Eckhardt

Abstract

Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht, welchen Beitrag die sogenannten Konvergenzregressionen einerseits und die Schätzungen von Markov-Ketten andererseits zur Klärung der Frage leisten können, ob die regionalen Pro-Kopf-Einkommen in Westdeutschland seit Mitte der siebziger Jahre konvergiert oder divergiert sind. Es wird gezeigt, daß die Ergebnisse der klassischen Konvergenzregressionen aufgrund der zufallsbedingten „regression towards the mean" verzerrt sind und damit keine verläßliche Antwort geben können. Modellrechnungen unter der Annahme eines stochastischen Regressors erlauben jedoch die Schlußfolgerung, daß eine ökonomisch bedingte Konvergenz der regionalen Pro-Kopf-Einkommen nur dann möglich ist, wenn die im Untersuchungszeitraum 1976-1992 beobachtbare Zunahme der Varianz der regionalen Pro-Kopf-Einkommen ausschließlich durch exogene Schocks hervorgerufen wurde. Dies erscheint unwahrscheinlich im Hinblick auf die Tatsache, daß die Zunahme der Varianz zu einem erheblichen Teil auf nur zwei Regionen - die Ballungsräume Rhein-Main (um Frankfurt) und München - zurückzuführen ist. Schätzungen von Markov-Ketten ergeben demgegenüber eine deutliche, aber unvollständige absolute Konvergenz der regionalen Pro-Kopf-Einkommen in Westdeutschland - allerdings mit zwei Ausnahmen: Die beiden Ballungsräume Rhein-Main und München, deren ohnehin hohe Pro-Kopf-Einkommen im Untersuchungszeitraum weiter kräftig gestiegen sind, scheinen sich zunehmend von den übrigen Regionen abzusetzen. Die für die Konvergenz/Divergenz-Debatte entscheidende Frage, ob dieser Prozeß dauerhaft ist und auf wachstumstheoretisch erklärbaren Ursachen beruht, oder ob er lediglich temporärer Natur und zufallsbedingt ist, erfordert weitere, tiefergehende Untersuchungen.

Suggested Citation

  • Bode, Eckhardt, 1996. "Konvergieren oder divergieren die regionalen Pro-Kopf-Einkommen in Westdeutschland? Eine empirische Untersuchung anhand von Markov-Ketten," Kiel Working Papers 776, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:776
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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