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Cointegration Analysis in an Inflationary Environment: What Can We Learn from Ukraine's Nominal Exports?

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  • Strauß, Hubert

Abstract

Ukrainian exports can be explained by standard demand theory in the long run. Using the Johansen procedure the data do not reject the hypothesis of a unit foreign-production elasticity of Ukrainian exports, which are rather price-elastic inputs for foreign producers. It is argued that due to high domestic inflation and substantial real appreciation of the hryvnia there might be a deterministic element in the long-run relationships. When allowing for a trend in the co­integration space, the identifying restriction of an infinitely price-elastic export supply curve produces best results. However, due to missing export price statistics long-run interpretations are to be taken with care because they are conditional upon assumptions on how costs and exchange-rates are passed through on export prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Strauß, Hubert, 2001. "Cointegration Analysis in an Inflationary Environment: What Can We Learn from Ukraine's Nominal Exports?," Kiel Working Papers 1084, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1084
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cointegration analysis; transitional economies; Ukraine; export demand; foreign trade elasticities; real effective exchange rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid

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