IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/glodps/618.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Excess Mortality as a Predictor of Mortality Crises: The Case of COVID-19 in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Ceriani, Lidia
  • Verme, Paolo

Abstract

The paper provides initial evidence that excess mortality rates by locality can be used as a statistically reliable predictor of looming mortality crises. Using recently published daily deaths figures for 7,357 Italian municipalities, we estimate the growth in daily mortality rates between the period 2015-2019 and 2020 by province. All provinces that experienced a major mortality shock in mid-March 2020 had increases in mortality rates of 100% or above already in mid-February 2020. This increase was particularly strong for males and older people, two recognizable features of COVID-19. Using panel data models, we find a strong positive and significant association between overall deaths and COVID-19 related deaths, and between early increases in mortality rates in February 2020 for any cause and the March 2020 outbreak in COVID-19 deaths. We conclude that the growth in mortality rates can potentially be used as a statistically reliable predictor of mortality crises, including COVID- 19 crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Ceriani, Lidia & Verme, Paolo, 2020. "Excess Mortality as a Predictor of Mortality Crises: The Case of COVID-19 in Italy," GLO Discussion Paper Series 618, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:618
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/222516/1/GLO-DP-0618.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Augusto Cerqua & Roberta Di Stefano & Marco Letta & Sara Miccoli, 2021. "Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1189-1217, October.
    2. Domenico Depalo, 2021. "True COVID-19 mortality rates from administrative data," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 253-274, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel Ştefan Armeanu & Georgeta Vintilă & Ştefan Cristian Gherghina, 2017. "Empirical Study towards the Drivers of Sustainable Economic Growth in EU-28 Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-22, December.
    2. Youngho Kang & Byung-Yeon Kim, 2018. "Immigration and economic growth: do origin and destination matter?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(46), pages 4968-4984, October.
    3. Alcaraz, Carlo & Villalvazo, Sergio, 2017. "The effect of natural gas shortages on the Mexican economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 147-153.
    4. Khalil, Umair, 2017. "Do more guns lead to more crime? Understanding the role of illegal firearms," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 342-361.
    5. Thorsten Lehnert, 2019. "Asset pricing implications of good governance," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-14, April.
    6. Cho, Seo-young & Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya, 2010. "Compliance for big brothers: An empirical analysis on the impact of the anti-trafficking protocol," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 118, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    7. Katsushi S. Imai & Raghav Gaiha & Ganesh Thapa & Samuel Kobina Annim, 2013. "Financial Crisis In Asia: Its Genesis, Severity And Impact On Poverty And Hunger," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(8), pages 1105-1116, November.
    8. Marco Botta & Luca Colombo, 2016. "Macroeconomic and Institutional Determinants of Capital Structure Decisions," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def038, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Republic of Poland: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/211, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Arturas Juodis, 2013. "Cointegration Testing in Panel VAR Models Under Partial Identification and Spatial Dependence," UvA-Econometrics Working Papers 13-08, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Dept. of Econometrics.
    11. Díez-Esteban, José María & Farinha, Jorge Bento & García-Gómez, Conrado Diego, 2016. "The role of institutional investors in propagating the 2007 financial crisis in Southern Europe," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 439-454.
    12. Vieira, Flávio & MacDonald, Ronald & Damasceno, Aderbal, 2012. "The role of institutions in cross-section income and panel data growth models: A deeper investigation on the weakness and proliferation of instruments," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 127-140.
    13. Nam, Changwoo, 2016. "Impact of Corporate Tax Cuts on Corporate Investment," KDI Policy Forum 264, Korea Development Institute (KDI).
    14. Alfonso Mendoza-Velázquez & Luis Carlos Ortuño-Barba & Luis David Conde-Cortés, 2022. "Corporate governance and firm performance in hybrid model countries," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 21(1), pages 32-58, February.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m052g20qh is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Hakkala, Katariina & Heyman, Fredrik & Sjöholm, Fredrik, 2007. "Cross-Border Acquisitions, Multinationals and Wage Elasticities," Working Paper Series 709, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    17. Ensar Yılmaz & Zeynep Kaplan, 2022. "Heterogeneity of market power: firm-level evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 1207-1228, May.
    18. Ilona Babenko & Benjamin Bennett & John M Bizjak & Jeffrey L Coles & Jason J Sandvik, 2023. "Clawback Provisions and Firm Risk," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 191-239.
    19. Leopoldo Fergusson & Carlos Molina, 2020. "Facebook Causes Protests," HiCN Working Papers 323, Households in Conflict Network.
    20. Tuba DERYA-BASKAN & Eda BALIKÇIOĞLU, 2018. "Firma Bileşenlerinin Halka Açık Perakende Firmalarında Kurumlar Vergisine Etkisi," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 26(37).
    21. Ufuk Akcigit & Murat Celik & Daron Acemoglu, 2014. "Young, Restless and Creative: Openness to Disruption and Creative Innovations," 2014 Meeting Papers 377, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:618. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/glabode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.