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Monetary analysis: a VAR perspective

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  • Gerdesmeier, Dieter
  • Roffia, Barbara

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate the dynamic relationships between some key variables for the euro area by means of a systems approach (i.e. so-called Vector Autoregression) and to simulate their responses with respect to monetary policy shocks. The main result is that rather simple models can provide plausible reactions to changes in monetary policy. In particular, a positive shock in the short-term nominal interest rate is followed by a transitory decline in real income as well as a negative and permanent effect on the price level and nominal M3, leaving real M3 broadly unchanged.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2007. "Monetary analysis: a VAR perspective," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 78, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fsfmwp:78
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2007. "How the ECB and the US Fed set interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(17), pages 2197-2209.
    2. Heidorn, Thomas & Siragusano, Tindaro, 2004. "Die Anwendbarkeit der Behavioral Finance im Devisenmarkt," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 52, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    3. Polleit, Thorsten & Gerdesmeier, Dieter, 2005. "Measures of excess liquidity," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 65, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    4. Löchel, Horst & Baumann, Stefan, 2006. "The endogeneity approach of the theory of optimum currency areas: what does it mean for ASEAN + 3?," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 70, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    5. Polleit, Thorsten, 2004. "The slowdown in German bank lending - revisited," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 53, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    6. Heidorn, Thomas & Gerhold, Mirko, 2004. "Investitionen und Emissionen von Convertible Bonds (Wandelanleihen)," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 50, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    7. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2005. "The relevance of real-time data in estimating reaction functions for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 293-307, December.
    8. Dickler, Robert A. & Schalast, Christoph, 2006. "Distressed debt in Germany: What's next? Possible innovative exit strategies," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 73, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    9. Becker, Gernot M. & Seeger, Norbert, 2003. "Internationale Cash Flow-Rechnungen aus Eigner- und Gläubigersicht," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 48, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    10. Heun, Michael & Schlink, Torsten, 2004. "Early warning systems of financial crises: implementation of a currency crisis model for Uganda," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 59, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    11. Chevalier, Pierre & Heidorn, Thomas & Krieger, Christian, 2003. "Temperaturderivate zur strategischen Absicherung von Beschaffungs- und Absatzrisiken," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 49, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary analysis; VAR models; generalized impulse response functions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

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