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Censored spatial wind power prediction with random effects

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  • Croonenbroeck, Carsten
  • Ambach, Daniel

Abstract

We investigate the importance of taking the spatial interaction of turbines inside a wind park into account. This article provides two tests that check for wake effects and thus, take spatial interdependence into account. Those effects are suspected to have a negative influence on wind power production. Thereafter, we introduce a new modeling approach that is based on the Generalized Wind Power Prediction Tool (GWPPT) and therefore respects both-sided censoring of the data. Furthermore, the new model takes a Spatial Lag Model (SLM) specification into account and allows for random effects in the panel data. Finally, we provide a short empirical study that compares the forecasting accuracy of our model to the established models WPPT, GWPPT, and the naïve persistence predictor. We show that our new model provides significantly better forecasts than the established models.

Suggested Citation

  • Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Ambach, Daniel, 2014. "Censored spatial wind power prediction with random effects," Discussion Papers 362, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:362
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kim, Soo-Hyun & Shin, Hyung-Ki & Joo, Young-Chul & Kim, Keon-Hoon, 2015. "A study of the wake effects on the wind characteristics and fatigue loads for the turbines in a wind farm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 536-543.
    2. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Møller Dahl, Christian, 2014. "Accurate medium-term wind power forecasting in a censored classification framework," Discussion Papers 351, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    3. Costa, Alexandre & Crespo, Antonio & Navarro, Jorge & Lizcano, Gil & Madsen, Henrik & Feitosa, Everaldo, 2008. "A review on the young history of the wind power short-term prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 12(6), pages 1725-1744, August.
    4. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Dahl, Christian Møller, 2014. "Accurate medium-term wind power forecasting in a censored classification framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 221-232.
    5. Lei, Ma & Shiyan, Luan & Chuanwen, Jiang & Hongling, Liu & Yan, Zhang, 2009. "A review on the forecasting of wind speed and generated power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 915-920, May.
    6. J. Elhorst, 2010. "Applied Spatial Econometrics: Raising the Bar," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-28.
    7. Hering, Amanda S. & Genton, Marc G., 2010. "Powering Up With Space-Time Wind Forecasting," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(489), pages 92-104.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spatial Lag Model; Censored; Regression; Wind Power; Forecasting; Random Effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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