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A single composite financial stress indicator and its real impact in the euro area

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  • Islami, Mevlud
  • Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol
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    Abstract

    In this paper, we construct a single composite financial stress indicator (FSI) which aims to predict developments in the real economy in the euro area. Our FSI was shown to perform better than the Euro STOXX 50 volatility index for the recent banking crisis and the euro-area sovereign debt crisis and to be able to serve as an early warning indicator for negative impacts of financial stress on the real economy. --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Papers with number 31/2013.

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    Date of creation: 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:312013

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    Keywords: financial stress indicator; predictability; financial crisis; real economy;

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    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
    3. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2011. "The Changing Macroeconomic Response to Stock Market Volatility Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 3652, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2004. "Breaks and Persistency: Macroeconomic Causes of Stock Market Volatility," Working Papers 20, SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics - University of Eastern Piedmont.
    5. Jeroen J.M. Kremers & Neil R. Ericsson & Juan J. Dolado, 1992. "The power of cointegration tests," International Finance Discussion Papers 431, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Lall, Subir, 2011. "Financial stress and economic contractions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 78-97, June.
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