IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ysm/wpaper/amz2517.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of Earnings Surprises on Stock Returns: Theory and Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Panos Patatoukas
  • Hongjun Yan

Abstract

This paper analyzes a dynamic general equilibrium model to study the impact of earnings surprises on contemporaneous stock returns. The model shows that earnings surprises can affect stock returns through two channels. On the one hand, earnings surprises affect the expected future earnings of the stock and so induce a positive earnings-returns correlation (cash flow effect). On the other hand, earnings surprises affect discount rates and so induce a negative earnings-returns correlation (discount rate effect). We show that the first channel is likely to dominate for most individual stocks, while the second channel can dominate for the aggregate stock market. Our model provides a theoretical foundation for the empirical findings in Kothari, Lewellen and Warner (2006) and generates two main implications: i) aggregate earnings surprises are positively related to interest rate changes, and ii) a stock’s return is less sensitive to earnings news if the stock’s earnings growth is more pro-cyclical. Our empirical evidence is consistent with both implications. More generally, our analysis illustrates that, due to the discount rate effect, firm-level phenomena may fail to extend to the aggregate stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Panos Patatoukas & Hongjun Yan, 2009. "The Impact of Earnings Surprises on Stock Returns: Theory and Evidence," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2517, Yale School of Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ysm:wpaper:amz2517
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.som.yale.edu/icfpub/publications/2517.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Teets, W, 1992. "The Association Between Stock-Market Responses To Earnings Announcements And Regulation Of Electric Utilities," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 274-285.
    2. Kothari, S.P. & Lewellen, Jonathan & Warner, Jerold B., 2006. "Stock returns, aggregate earnings surprises, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 537-568, March.
    3. Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew & Whitelaw, Robert F, 1994. "Industry Returns and the Fisher Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1595-1615, December.
    4. Teets, Walter R. & Wasley, Charles E., 1996. "Estimating earnings response coefficients: Pooled versus firm-specific models," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 279-295, June.
    5. James Claus & Jacob Thomas, 2001. "Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1629-1666, October.
    6. Pietro Veronesi, 2000. "How Does Information Quality Affect Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 807-837, April.
    7. Kormendi, Roger & Lipe, Robert, 1987. "Earnings Innovations, Earnings Persistence, and Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 323-345, July.
    8. Terence Lim, 2001. "Rationality and Analysts' Forecast Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 369-385, February.
    9. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    10. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 398-418, June.
    11. Ball, R & Brown, P, 1968. "Empirical Evaluation Of Accounting Income Numbers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 159-178.
    12. Basu, Sudipta, 1997. "The conservatism principle and the asymmetric timeliness of earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 3-37, December.
    13. Francis, J & Philbrick, D, 1993. "Analysts Decisions As Products Of A Multitask Environment," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 216-230.
    14. Collins, Daniel W. & Kothari, S. P., 1989. "An analysis of intertemporal and cross-sectional determinants of earnings response coefficients," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 143-181, July.
    15. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    16. Givoly, Dan & Hayn, Carla, 2000. "The changing time-series properties of earnings, cash flows and accruals: Has financial reporting become more conservative?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 287-320, June.
    17. McNichols, M & O'Brien, PC, 1997. "Self-selection and analyst coverage," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35, pages 167-199.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    2. Panos Patatoukas & Hongjun Yan, 2009. "The Impact of Earnings Surprises on Stock Returns: Theory and Evidence," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2517, Yale School of Management.
    3. Jorgensen, Bjorn & Li, Jing & Sadka, Gil, 2012. "Earnings dispersion and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-20.
    4. Yezegel, Ari, 2015. "Why do analysts revise their stock recommendations after earnings announcements?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 163-181.
    5. Mohamed Sellami, 2006. "Typologie des déterminants comptables de la valeur : Apports de l'approche économique de l'information dans la mesure de la valeur," Post-Print halshs-00558252, HAL.
    6. S. P. Kothari & Charles Wasley, 2019. "Commemorating the 50‐Year Anniversary of Ball and Brown (1968): The Evolution of Capital Market Research over the Past 50 Years," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(5), pages 1117-1159, December.
    7. Dechow, Patricia & Ge, Weili & Schrand, Catherine, 2010. "Understanding earnings quality: A review of the proxies, their determinants and their consequences," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 344-401, December.
    8. Vitor Azevedo & Patrick Bielstein & Manuel Gerhart, 2021. "Earnings forecasts: the case for combining analysts’ estimates with a cross-sectional model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 545-579, February.
    9. Lipe, Robert C. & Bryant, Lisa & Widener, Sally K., 1998. "Do nonlinearity, firm-specific coefficients, and losses represent distinct factors in the relation between stock returns and accounting earnings?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 195-214, May.
    10. David S. Jenkins & Gregory D. Kane & Uma Velury, 2009. "Earnings Conservatism and Value Relevance Across the Business Cycle," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9-10), pages 1041-1058.
    11. Gu, Zhaoyang & Xue, Jian, 2008. "The superiority and disciplining role of independent analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2-3), pages 289-316, August.
    12. Cready, William M. & Hurtt, David N. & Seida, Jim A., 2000. "Applying reverse regression techniques in earnings-return analyses," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 227-240, October.
    13. Fargher, Neil & Wee, Marvin, 2019. "The impact of Ball and Brown (1968) on generations of research," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 55-72.
    14. Mark A. Clatworthy & David A. Peel & Peter F. Pope, 2012. "Are Analysts' Loss Functions Asymmetric?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(8), pages 736-756, December.
    15. Sadka, Gil & Sadka, Ronnie, 2009. "Predictability and the earnings-returns relation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 87-106, October.
    16. Nikola Petrovic & Stuart Manson & Jerry Coakley, 2009. "Does Volatility Improve UK Earnings Forecasts?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9‐10), pages 1148-1179, November.
    17. Ball, Ray & Nikolaev, Valeri V., 2022. "On earnings and cash flows as predictors of future cash flows," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1).
    18. Truong, Cameron & Corrado, Charles & Chen, Yangyang, 2012. "The options market response to accounting earnings announcements," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-450.
    19. Irena Jindrichovska, 2001. "The relationship between accounting numbers and returns: some empirical evidence from the emerging market of the Czech Republic," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 107-131.
    20. Ray Ball & Gil Sadka & Ronnie Sadka, 2009. "Aggregate Earnings and Asset Prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 1097-1133, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ysm:wpaper:amz2517. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/smyalus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.