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A Non-Random Walk Down the Main Street: Impact of Price Trends on Trading Decisions of Individual Investors

Author

Listed:
  • Alok Kumar

    (Mendoza College of Business)

  • Ravi Dhar

    (International Center for Finance)

Abstract

We analyze the impact of price trends on trading decisions of more than 40,000 households with accounts at a major discount brokerage house and find that buying and selling decisions of investors in our sample are influenced by short-term (less than 3 months) price trends. We examine investor heterogeneity in trading based on prior returns and classify investors into (i) momentum buy (MB), (ii) momentum sell (MS), (iii) contrarian buy (CB) or (iv) contrarian sell (CS) category. The trading behavior of these investor segments show systematic differences. In particular, we find systematic variations in the response of these investor segments to reference points such as recent high and low prices. Furthermore, consistent with differences in expectations, the disposition effect varies across the investor segments. Our results provide some support to the commonly held belief that relatively more sophisticated investors exhibit contrarian trading behavior. We find that the contrarian investor segment has the best overall performance and their portfolios exhibit better characteristics in comparison to the momentum investor segment.

Suggested Citation

  • Alok Kumar & Ravi Dhar, 2001. "A Non-Random Walk Down the Main Street: Impact of Price Trends on Trading Decisions of Individual Investors," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm208, Yale School of Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm208
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 2008. "Financial Literacy and Portfolio Diversification," EIEF Working Papers Series 0812, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Oct 2008.
    2. Ashutosh Pradhan, 2021. "Quantitative model for impact of behavioral biases on asset allocation decisions: a case study of investors in UAE," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(7), pages 573-580, December.
    3. Fong, Wai Mun & Yong, Lawrence H. M., 2005. "Chasing trends: recursive moving average trading rules and internet stocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 43-76, January.
    4. Bansal, Avijit & Jacob, Joshy, 2022. "Impact of Price Path on Disposition Bias," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    5. Jeffrey Bailey & John Nofsinger & Michele O'Neill, 2003. "A Review of Major Influences on Employee Retirement Investment Decisions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 23(2), pages 149-165, April.
    6. Yuval Arbel & Danny Ben-Shahar & Eyal Sulganik, 2009. "Mean Reversion and Momentum: Another Look at the Price-Volume Correlation in the Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 316-335, October.
    7. Raffaele Miniaci & Sergio Pastorello, 2010. "Mean-variance econometric analysis of household portfolios," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 481-504.
    8. Zoran Ivković & Scott Weisbenner, 2005. "Local Does as Local Is: Information Content of the Geography of Individual Investors' Common Stock Investments," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 267-306, February.
    9. Tim A. Herberger & Matthias Horn & Andreas Oehler, 2020. "Are intraday reversal and momentum trading strategies feasible? An analysis for German blue chip stocks," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 34(2), pages 179-197, June.
    10. Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 2005. "September 11 and Stock Return Expectations of Individual Investors," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 243-279, June.
    11. Fong, Wai Mun & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Wong, Wing Keung, 2008. "Stochastic dominance and behavior towards risk: The market for Internet stocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 194-208, October.
    12. Andreas Hackethal & Tobin Hanspal & Dominique M Lammer & Kevin Rink, 2022. "The Characteristics and Portfolio Behavior of Bitcoin Investors: Evidence from Indirect Cryptocurrency Investments [The investor in structured retail products: advice driven or gambling oriented]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(4), pages 855-898.
    13. David Colwell & Julia Henker & Terry Walter, 2008. "Effect of Investor Category Trading Imbalances on Stock Returns," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 8(3‐4), pages 179-206, September.
    14. Lammer, Dominique Marcel & Hanspal, Tobin & Hackethal, Andreas, 2020. "Who are the Bitcoin investors? Evidence from indirect cryptocurrency investments," SAFE Working Paper Series 277, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    15. Oehler, Andreas & Heilmann, Klaus & Lager, Volker & Oberlander, Michael, 2003. "Coexistence of disposition investors and momentum traders in stock markets: experimental evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 503-524, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor Behavior; Trading Styles; Reference Points; Disposition Effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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