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Don’t Stop ’Til You Get Enough: a quickest detection approach to HTA

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  • Daniele Bregantini

Abstract

Within the context of the value of information approach we compare static versus quickest detection rules for research design in health care technology assessment (HTA). We show for a research design that the optimal decision rule cannot be correctly predicted at the start of the trial. We make use of the sequential value of information (S-VoI) decision making model for HTA under uncertainty to show that the static value of information approach leads to lower expected benefit and poses costs, both in terms of resources and forgone health gains, on the health care system.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniele Bregantini, 2014. "Don’t Stop ’Til You Get Enough: a quickest detection approach to HTA," Discussion Papers 14/04, Department of Economics, University of York.
    • Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:14/04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stefano Conti & Karl Claxton, 2009. "Dimensions of Design Space: A Decision-Theoretic Approach to Optimal Research Design," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 29(6), pages 643-660, November.
    2. Simon G. Thompson & Richard M. Nixon, 2005. "How Sensitive Are Cost-Effectiveness Analyses to Choice of Parametric Distributions?," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 25(4), pages 416-423, July.
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    8. Karl Claxton & John Posnett, "undated". "An Economic Approach to Clinical Trial Design and Research Priority Setting," Discussion Papers 96/19, Department of Economics, University of York.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal stopping; HTA; Bayes; Value of Information;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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