It is well known that some relationship between systematic risk and credit risk prevails in financial markets. In our study, S&P 500 stock index return is our market risk proxy whereas credit spreads represent our credit risk proxy as a function of maturity, rating and economic sector. We address the problem of studying the joint distributions and evolutions of S&P 500 return and credit spreads. Graphical and non parametric statistical analysis (i.e.: Kendall’s tau and Spearman’s rho) show that such bivariate distributions are asymmetric with some negative relationship between S&P 500 return and credit spreads. In-deed, credit spreads widen when S&P 500 return decreases or drops under some given level. We investigate then this stylized fact using copula functions to characterize observed dependence structures between S&P 500 return and credit spreads. We focus at least on one parameter copulas and at most on one parameter Archimedean copulas, namely Gumbel, FGM, Frank and Clayton copula functions. Starting from empirical Kendall’s tau observed for each bivariate dependence structure, we induce parameter values for each copula type function belonging to our copulas set. Finally, we exhibit optimal characterizations for such dependence structures and use the optimal selected copulas to achieve a scenario analysis among which stress testing.
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Risk and Insurance with number
0308002.
Length: 27 pages Date of creation: 25 Aug 2003 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpri:0308002
Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; prepared on PC; to print on HP/PostScript; pages: 27 ; figures: included. This paper is under submission for the special issue of the European Investment Review. Contact details of provider: Web page: http://129.3.20.41
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Jan Ericsson & Olivier Renault, 2006.
"Liquidity and Credit Risk,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2219-2250, October.
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