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Financial Dollarization and the Size of the Fear

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Author Info
Juan F. Castro (Universidad del Pacífico)
Eduardo Morón (Universidad del Pacífico)

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Abstract

Based on the significance of a Minimum Variance Portfolio (MVP) for the understanding of dollarization equilibria, a significant strand of the debate concerned with the driving forces behind this phenomenon has focused on analyzing the determinants of the relative volatility of inflation vis-à-vis real depreciation. This analysis contributes in the identification of those factors by extending the basic CAPM formulation via the introduction of credit risk that is directly linked to the shock that determines real returns for dollar denominated assets: unanticipated shifts in the real exchange rate. We show this ingredient can end up altering the perceived relative volatility of peso and dollar assets in a way that fuels financial dollarization (by increasing the relative hedging opportunities offered by the latter). We calibrate our model using Peruvian data for the period 1998-2004, and its predictions show a better fit with observed financial dollarization ratios than those of the basic CAPM model.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0509027.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 30 Sep 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0509027

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 24
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: Financial dollarization; Minimum Variance Portfolio; Peru;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Alain Ize, 2005. "Financial Dollarization Equilibria: A Framework for Policy Analysis," IMF Working Papers 05/186, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio Natalucci, 2001. "External constraints on monetary policy and the financial accelerator," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Eduardo Moron & Juan F. Castro & Diego Winkelried, 2004. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability in Partially Dollarized Economies," International Finance 0406002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Salvatore Dell'Erba & Martin Saldías Zambrana, 2006. "Financial Dollarization and Currency Substitution. An Empirical Study for Bolivia America than in Asia?," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 432, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-30.

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