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Anticipated Money Growth and Stock Prices in Turkey

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Author Info

  • Rahmi Yamak

    (Karadeniz Technical University)

  • Yakup Kucukkale

    (Ondokuz Mayis University)

Abstract

This study investigates the validity of the policy ineffectiveness hypothesis of Rational Expectations-Natural Rate Models that only unanticipated policy changes affect stock prices by using Turkish data over the period of 1986:1-1999:3. The procedure used to test the hypothesis is the autoregressive system introduced by McGee and Stasiak (1985). The empirical results reported in this paper imply that both anticipated and unanticipated monetary policy appears to play a significant expansionary impact upon stock prices. Such evidence for Turkey strongly rejects the policy ineffectiveness hypothesis of Rational Expectations-Natural Rate Models.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/mac/papers/0211/0211010.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0211010.

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Length: 11 pages
Date of creation: 18 Nov 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0211010

Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; prepared on PC; to print on A4; pages: 11 ; figures: included. pdf document submitted via ftp
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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Keywords: anticipated unanticipated money growth stock prices sur shock;

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References

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  1. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
  2. McGee, Robert T & Stasiak, Richard T, 1985. "Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? Another Look," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(1), pages 16-27, February.
  3. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-15, March.
  4. Sargan, John Denis & Bhargava, Alok, 1983. "Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression for Being Generated by the Gaussian Random Walk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(1), pages 153-74, January.
  5. Hamburger, Michael J & Kochin, Levis A, 1972. "Money and Stock Prices: The Channels of Influence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 231-49, May.
  6. Barro, Robert J, 1978. "Unanticipated Money, Output, and the Price Level in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 549-80, August.
  7. Cooper, Richard V L, 1974. "Efficient Capital Markets and the Quantity Theory of Money," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(3), pages 887-908, June.
  8. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  9. Rozeff, Michael S., 1974. "Money and stock prices : Market efficiency and the lag in effect of monetary policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 245-302, September.
  10. Homa, Kenneth E & Jaffee, Dwight M, 1971. "The Supply of Money and Common Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(5), pages 1045-66, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Chin-Hong, Puah & Muzafar Shah, Habibullah & Venus Khim-Sen, Liew, 2009. "Is Money Neutral In Stock Market? The Case of Malaysia," MPRA Paper 24017, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
  2. Chin-Hong Puah, & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Kian-Ping Lim, 2006. "Testing Long-Run Neutrality Of Money: Evidence From Malaysian Stock Market," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 15-37, July.

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