In a sequential Computable General Equilibrium analysis, we investigate the likely effects of the EU-South Africa Free Trade agreement (FTA), with a special emphasis on South Africa’s growth prospects. We find that the FTA increases South African output and welfare. We note, however, that the gains are very modest when viewed in the context of the time period over which full adjustment to the treaty provisions is expected to occur. Only 2 percent of the economic growth expected over the next 18 years in South Africa can be linked to additional trade associated with the FTA. The long phase-in period and the partial benefits of regionalism limit the importance of trade as an engine of growth.
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Trade with number
0108001.
Length: 18 pages Date of creation: 01 Aug 2001 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0108001
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Find related papers by JEL classification: F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
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