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Transmission of External and Internal Shocks In Argentina During the Convertibility Period: Some Empirical Findings From VARs

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    Abstract

    We use VARs to study the transmission of shocks in Argentina during the currency board regime. We focus on shocks to international commodity prices, U.S. monetary policy, the real effective exchange rate, and the sovereign risk premium on emerging market debt. Of those factors, only the sovereign risk premium affects output significantly, which we believe is really a proxy for beliefs about fiscal solvency. Both the monetary base and money market interest rates react to U.S. monetary policy, but such shocks do not affect Argentine output significantly. Finally, it does not appear that the appreciation of the U.S. dollar affected the economy adversely.

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    File URL: http://web.williams.edu/Economics/wp/geiregatSVARArgentinaPaper.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Department of Economics, Williams College in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number 2004-11.

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    Length: 28 pages
    Date of creation: Jul 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wil:wileco:2004-11

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    Related research

    Keywords: International Transmission; Argentina; Currency Board; Monetary Policy.;

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    1. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Augusto de la Torre & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2003. "Living and Dying with Hard Pegs: The Rise and Fall of Argentina's Currency Board," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
    3. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    4. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    5. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November.
    6. Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1011, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 339-372, October.
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