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Possible Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Scenarios for Sanctions, and Likely Economic Impact on Russia, Ukraine, and the EU

Author

Listed:
  • Vasily Astrov

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Richard Grieveson

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Artem Kochnev

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Michael Landesmann

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Olga Pindyuk

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

Abstract

While the outcome of the current Ukraine crisis is highly uncertain, it seems likely that the West will impose sanctions on Russia. Applying a stylized VARX model on Russian quarterly time series, we find no statistically significant impact of sanctions on either Russian GDP or the FX rate. However, we find that Russia is extremely vulnerable to a reduction in the price or volume of its energy exports. Aside from energy, the most painful sanctions would include cutting Russian banks off from the SWIFT system and dollar markets, and bans on exports of high-tech goods to Russia. While Russia has become increasingly insulated from the dollar-based global system, and has built up substantial buffers which it can deploy in the case of sanctions, under an adverse scenario the state would have to make large-scale interventions to maintain economic and financial stability. The Ukrainian economy will also suffer, and will require major Western support to maintain macro-financial stability. Over the medium run, the current crisis will further isolate Russia economically, leading to a continuation of its very mediocre growth performance since 2014.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasily Astrov & Richard Grieveson & Artem Kochnev & Michael Landesmann & Olga Pindyuk, 2022. "Possible Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Scenarios for Sanctions, and Likely Economic Impact on Russia, Ukraine, and the EU," wiiw Policy Notes 55, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    • Handle: RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:55
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ahn, Daniel P. & Ludema, Rodney D., 2020. "The sword and the shield: The economics of targeted sanctions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. Dreger, Christian & Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Ulbricht, Dirk & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2016. "Between the hammer and the anvil: The impact of economic sanctions and oil prices on Russia’s ruble," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 295-308.
    3. Tuzova, Yelena & Qayum, Faryal, 2016. "Global oil glut and sanctions: The impact on Putin’s Russia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 140-151.
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    Cited by:

    1. Inacio, C.M.C. & Kristoufek, L. & David, S.A., 2023. "Assessing the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on energy prices: A dynamic cross-correlation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 626(C).
    2. Vasily Astrov & Mahdi Ghodsi & Richard Grieveson & Mario Holzner & Artem Kochnev & Michael Landesmann & Olga Pindyuk & Robert Stehrer & Maryna Tverdostup & Alexandra Bykova, 2022. "Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: assessment of the humanitarian, economic, and financial impact in the short and medium term," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 331-381, May.
    3. Fang, Yi & Shao, Zhiquan, 2022. "The Russia-Ukraine conflict and volatility risk of commodity markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ukraine; Russia; EU; US; sanctions; energy; CEE;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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