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Ex-ante Evaluation of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs: The Case of Bolsa Escola

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Author Info
François Bourguignon ()
Francisco H. G. Ferreira
Phillippe G. Leite

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Abstract

Cash transfers targeted to poor people, but conditional on some behavior on their part, such as school attendance or regular visits to health care facilities, are being adopted in a growing number of developing countries. Even where ex-post impact evaluations have been conducted, a number of policy-relevant counterfactual questions have remained unanswered. These are questions about the potential impact of changes in program design, such as benefit levels or the choice of the means-test, on both the current welfare and the behavioral response of household members. This paper proposes a method to simulate the effects of those alternative program designs on welfare and behavior, based on micro-econometrically estimated models of household behavior. In an application to Brazil’s recently introduced federal Bolsa Escola program, we find a surprisingly strong effect of the conditionality on school attendance, but a muted impact of the transfers on the reduction of current poverty and inequality levels.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number 516.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2002
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Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2002-516

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Related research
Keywords: Conditional Transfers; Demand for Schooling; Child Labor;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Chiappori, Pierre-Andre, 1992. "Collective Labor Supply and Welfare," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(3), pages 437-67, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Sonia Bhalotra, 2000. "Is Child Work Necessary?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0500, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Ferreira, Francisco H. G. & Lanjouw, Peter & Neri, Marcelo Cortes, 2002. "A Robust Poverty Profile for Brazil Using Multiple Data Sources," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 444, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Kaushik Basu, 1999. "Child Labor: Cause, Consequence, and Cure, with Remarks on International Labor Standards," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(3), pages 1083-1119, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Browning, Martin & Francois Bourguignon & Pierre-Andre Chiappori & Valerie Lechene, 1994. "Income and Outcomes: A Structural Model of Intrahousehold Allocation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1067-96, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Bourguignon, F. & Browning, M. & Chiappori, P. A., 1995. "The Collective Approach to Household Behaviour," DELTA Working Papers 95-04, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  7. Jean-Marie Baland & James A. Robinson, 2000. "Is Child Labor Inefficient?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(4), pages 663-679, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Atkinson, A.B. & Bourguignon, F., 1990. "Tax-Benefit Models for Developing Countries: Lessons from Developed Countries," DELTA Working Papers 90-15, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  9. Gertler, Paul & Glewwe, Paul, 1990. "The willingness to pay for education in developing countries : Evidence from rural Peru," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 251-275, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ravallion, Martin & Wodon, Quentin, 1999. "Does child labor displace schooling? - evidence on behavioral responses to an enrollment subsidy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2116, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Evenson, Robert E, 1977. "Fertility, Schooling, and the Economic Contribution of Children in Rural India: An Econometric Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(5), pages 1065-79, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Britto, T.F. de, 2004. "Conditional cash transfers: why have they become so prominent in recent poverty reduction strategies in Latin America," Working Papers - General Series 390, Institute of Social Studies. [Downloadable!]
  2. Basu, Kaushik, 2003. "Policy Dilemmas for Controlling Child Labor," Working Papers 03-11, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Das, Jishnu & Quy-Toan Do & Ozler, Berk, 2004. "Conditional cash transfers and the equity-efficiency debate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3280, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bussolo, Maurizio & Lay, Jann & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2006. "Structural change and poverty reduction in Brazil : the impact of the Doha Round," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3833, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Marcelo Cortes Neri & Nanak Kakwani & Hyun H. Son, 2007. "Linkages Between Pro-Poor Growth And The Labor Market In Brazil," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 096, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  6. Kakwani, Nanak & Neri, Marcelo Cortes & Hyun, H. Son, 2006. "Linkages between Growth, Poverty and the Labour Market," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 634, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  7. Nanak Kakwani & Fabio Veras Soares & Hyun H. Son, 2005. "Conditional cash transfers in African countries," Working Papers 9, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth. [Downloadable!]
  8. Elisabeth Sadoulet & Alain de Janvry, 2003. "Targeting and Calibrating Educational Grants for Greater Efficiency," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series 985, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
  9. Amanda Glassman & Jessica Todd, 2007. "Performance-Based Incentives for Health: Conditional Cash Transfer Programs in Latin America and the Caribbean," Working Papers 120, Center for Global Development. [Downloadable!]
  10. Firouz Gahvari & Enlinson Mattos, 2007. "Conditional Cash Transfers, Public Provision of Private Goods, and Income Redistribution," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 491-502, March. [Downloadable!]
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