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Demand growth versus market share gains : decomposing world manufacturing import growth

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  • Aksoy, M. Ataman
  • Ng, Francis

Abstract

This paper decomposes manufacturing import growth rates in a selected set of large industrial and developing countries (five industrial and eight developing) and measures the relative contributions of domestic demand and market share changes for two separate periods 1991/92 - 2001/02 and 2001/02 - 2007/08. It also shows the shares of imports both from the rest of the world and from developing countries for aggregate and three-digit manufacturing sectors. Import growth is much higher during the 2000s driven by higher demand growth rates. While market share changes explain most of the growth during the 1990s, its contribution is relatively smaller during the 2000s. Imports from developing countries have grown much faster both in industrial and developing country markets driven primarily by market share changes. However, more than half of market share gains by developing countries are caused by the exports of China, which accounts for more than 70 percent of market share gains of developing countries in the sample countries during the 2000s. Despite rapid growth, developing countries'share in the gross absorption of the sample countries is still low and can expand substantially even if demand growth is much lower in the near future.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 6375.

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Date of creation: 01 Feb 2013
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6375

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Keywords: Emerging Markets; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Debt Markets; Markets and Market Access; Trade Policy;

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  1. Mayer, Jörg, 2004. "Export Dynamism and Market Access," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 19, pages 289-316.
  2. Alessandro Nicita & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2007. "Trade, Production, and Protection Database, 1976--2004," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(1), pages 165-171.
  3. Ng, Francis & Yeats, Alexander, 2003. "Major trade trends in East Asia : what are their implications for regional cooperation and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3084, The World Bank.
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  7. Ng, Francis & Yeats, Alexander, 1996. "Open economies work better! Did Africa's protectionist policies cause its marginalization in world trade?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1636, The World Bank.
  8. Lawrence Edwards & Phil Alves, 2006. "South Africa'S Export Performance: Determinants Of Export Supply," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(3), pages 473-500, 09.
  9. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 1990. "Export composition and the impact of exports on economic growth of developing economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 67-71, September.
  10. Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "How Much of Chinese Exports is Really Made In China? Assessing Domestic Value-Added When Processing Trade is Pervasive," NBER Working Papers 14109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Dean, Judith & Fung, K.C. & Wang, Zhi, 2008. "How vertically specialized is Chinese trade?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 31/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
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