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Uncertainty about children's survival and fertility : a test using Indian microdata

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  • Atella, Vincenzo
  • Rosati, Furio Camillo

Abstract

The authors present a non-altruistic model of demand for children, in the presence of uncertainty about children's survival. Children are seen as assets, as they provide help during old age. If certain conditions are met, both the financial market, and the family network are used to transfer resources to old age. Theoretical predictions relative to the change in the mean, and variance of the survival rate are derived. The empirical analysis is based on data from the Human Development of India (HDI) Survey. Different models for count variables, such as Poisson, Hurdle, and ZI models have been employed in the empirical analysis. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainty about children's survival in determining parental choices, thus showing that realized, or expected children'sdeath, is not the only dimension that links fertility decision to children's mortality. The policy implications of such findings are briefly discussed.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Social Protection Discussion Papers with number 21334.

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Date of creation: 31 Dec 1999
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:21334

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Related research

Keywords: Youth and Governance; Health Monitoring&Evaluation; Population&Development; Environmental Economics&Policies; Adolescent Health;

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Cited by:
  1. Wiji Arulampalam & Sonia Bhalotra, 2004. "Inequality in Infant Survival Rates in India: Identification of State-Dependence Effects," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 04/558, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
  2. F. Rosati & M. Rossi, 2001. "Children's Working Hours, School Enrolment and Human Capital Accumulation: Evidence from Pakistan and Nicaragua," UCW Working Paper 8, Understanding Children's Work (UCW Programme).

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