Export-led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Noncausality Results
AbstractThe economic development and growth literature contains extensive discussions on relationships between exports and economic growth. One debate centers on whether countries should promote the export sector to obtain economic growth. An abundant empirical literature on this export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis has followed. We contribute to this literature in two ways. First, we provide a comprehensive survey of more than one hundred and fifty export-growth applied papers. We describe the changes that have occurred, over the last two decades, in the methodologies used to empirically examine for relationships between exports and economic growth, and we provide information on the current findings. The last decade has seen an abundance of time series studies which focus on examining for causality via exclusions restrictions tests, impulse response function analysis and forecast error variance decompositions. Our second contribution is to examine some of these time series methods. We show that ELG results based on standard causality techniques are not tyically robust to specification or method. We do this by reconsidering two export-led growth applications - Oxley's 1993 study for Portugal and Henriques and Sadorsky's 1996 analysis for Canada. Our results suggest that extreme care should be exercised when interpreting much of the applied research on the ELG hypothesis.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, University of Victoria in its series Econometrics Working Papers with number 9901.
Length: 78 pages
Date of creation: 12 Jan 1999
Date of revision:
Note: ISSN 1485-6441
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Postal: PO Box 1700, STN CSC, Victoria, BC, Canada, V8W 2Y2
Web page: http://web.uvic.ca/econ
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Economic growth; export production; causality; time series models; misspecification; model dimension; cointegration; innovation accounting;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O51 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
- O52 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
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