Export-led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Noncausality Results
AbstractThe economic development and growth literature contains extensive discussions on relationships between exports and economic growth. One debate centers on whether countries should promote the export sector to obtain economic growth. An abundant empirical literature on this export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis has followed. We contribute to this literature in two ways. First, we provide a comprehensive survey of more than one hundred and fifty export-growth applied papers. We describe the changes that have occurred, over the last two decades, in the methodologies used to empirically examine for relationships between exports and economic growth, and we provide information on the current findings. The last decade has seen an abundance of time series studies which focus on examining for causality via exclusions restrictions tests, impulse response function analysis and forecast error variance decompositions. Our second contribution is to examine some of these time series methods. We show that ELG results based on standard causality techniques are not tyically robust to specification or method. We do this by reconsidering two export-led growth applications - Oxley's 1993 study for Portugal and Henriques and Sadorsky's 1996 analysis for Canada. Our results suggest that extreme care should be exercised when interpreting much of the applied research on the ELG hypothesis.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, University of Victoria in its series Econometrics Working Papers with number 9901.
Length: 78 pages
Date of creation: 12 Jan 1999
Date of revision:
Note: ISSN 1485-6441
Contact details of provider:
Postal: PO Box 1700, STN CSC, Victoria, BC, Canada, V8W 2Y2
Web page: http://web.uvic.ca/econ
More information through EDIRC
Economic growth; export production; causality; time series models; misspecification; model dimension; cointegration; innovation accounting;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O51 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
- O52 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Roe, Terry L. & Shane, Mathew & Heerman, Kari, 2011. "Macroeconomic Imbalances in the World Economy," Working Papers 109244, University of Minnesota, Center for International Food and Agricultural Policy.
- Frances Ruane & Ali U?ur, 2005.
"Export Platform FDI and Dualistic Development,"
The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series
- Frances Ruane & Ali Ugur, 2005. "Export Platform FDI and Dualistic Development," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp029, IIIS.
- Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2006. "Electricity consumption and economic growth: a time series experience for 17 African countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1106-1114, July.
- Muhammad, Shahbaz & Mohammad, Mafizur Rahman & Abdul, Farooq, 2012. "Financial Development, International Trade and Economic Growth in Australia:New Evidence from Multivariate Framework Analysis," MPRA Paper 42023, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Oct 2012.
- Bianka Dettmer, 2012. "Business services outsourcing and economic growth: Evidence from a dynamic panel data approach," Jena Economic Research Papers 2012-049, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
- Mojsoska-Blazevski, Nikica & Petreski, Marjan, 2010. "Western Balkan’s trade with the EU and CEFTA-2006: Evidence from Macedonian data," MPRA Paper 41942, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- World Bank, 2002. "The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia : Developing Exports to Promote Growth," World Bank Other Operational Studies 15422, The World Bank.
- Yuqing Xing & Manisha Pradhananga, 2013. "How Important is Exports and FDI for China's Economic Growth?," GRIPS Discussion Papers 13-04, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
- Salvatore D'Acunto & Sergio Destefanis & Marco Musella, 2004. "Exports, Supply Constraints and Growth: An Investigation using Regional Data," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 167-189.
- João Paulo Martin Faleiros & Denisard Cnéio de Oliveira Alves, 2008. "Modelo de Crescimento Baseado nas Exportações: Evidências empíricas para Chile, Brasil e México, em uma perspectiva Não Linear," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807170923500, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
- Mahadevan, Renuka & Suardi, Sandy, 2008. "A dynamic analysis of the impact of uncertainty on import- and/or export-led growth: The experience of Japan and the Asian Tigers," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 155-174, March.
- Lukasz Lach & Henryk Gurgul, 2010.
"International trade and economic growth in the Polish economy,"
Operations Research and Decisions,
Wroclaw University of Technology, Institute of Organization and Management, vol. 3, pages 5-29.
- Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, Łukasz, 2010. "International trade and economic growth in the Polish economy," MPRA Paper 52286, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lori Cretney).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.