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Convergence Among the U.S. States: Absolute, Conditional, or Club?

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This paper attempts to ascertain which of the convergence hypotheses – absolute, conditional, or club – best describes the economic development of the U.S. states since 1950. We use regression tree analysis to identify convergence clubs among the states and argue that the club characterization of the data dominates the other two. We find three convergence clubs with a state's age and it's initial densities of post offices and telephone cable determining club membership. Abstracting from catch-up effects, those states with higher densities tend to grow faster.

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File URL: http://irving.vassar.edu/VCEWP/VCEWP50.pdf
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Paper provided by Vassar College Department of Economics in its series Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series with number 50.

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Date of creation: Aug 2001
Date of revision: Oct 2003
Handle: RePEc:vas:papers:50

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  1. Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 6422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Galor, Oded, 1996. "Convergence? Inferences from Theoretical Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1056-69, July.
  3. Lars-Hendrik Roller & Leonard Waverman, 2001. "Telecommunications Infrastructure and Economic Development: A Simultaneous Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 909-923, September.
  4. Bernard, Andrew B & Jones, Charles I, 1996. "Productivity and Convergence across U.S. States and Industries," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 113-35.
  5. Durlauf, Steven N & Johnson, Paul A, 1995. "Multiple Regimes and Cross-Country Growth Behaviour," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 365-84, Oct.-Dec..
  6. Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Do Economies Converge? Evidence from a Panel of U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 384-88, August.
  7. Gerald Carlino & Leonard Mills, 1994. "Convergence and the U.S states: a time series analysis," Working Papers 94-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  8. Attfield, C. L. F. & Cannon, Edmund S. & Demery, D. & Duck, Nigel W., 2000. "Economic growth and geographic proximity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 109-112, July.
  9. Ciccone, Antonio & Hall, Robert E, 1996. "Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 54-70, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Guilherme Mendes Resende & Lízia de Figueiredo, 2008. "Economic Growth Of Minas Gerais: A Quantile Regression Approach Between 1980 And 2000," Anais do XIII Seminário sobre a Economia Mineira [Proceedings of the 13th Seminar on the Economy of Minas Gerais], Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, in: Anais do XIII Seminário sobre a Economia Mineira [Proceedings of the 13th Seminar on the Economy of Minas Gerais] Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
  2. José María Mella Márquez & Coro Chasco Yrigoyen, 2004. "Urban growth and territorial dynamics in Spain (1985-2001): A spatial econometrics analysis," Urban/Regional, EconWPA 0411003, EconWPA.
  3. FE, Doukouré Charles, 2010. "Réduction de Droits de Douane et Convergence Réelle dans l'UEMOA
    [Tariffs Reduction and Real Convergence in WAEMU]
    ," MPRA Paper 26763, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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