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Fair Pricing of Weather Derivatives

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Author Info
Eckhard Platen () (School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney)
Jason West

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Abstract

This paper proposes a consistent benchmark approach to price weather derivatives. The growth optimal portfolio to price weather derivatives. The growth optimal portfolio is used as numeraire such that all benchmarked fair price processes are martingales. No measure transformation is needed for fair pricing. Since weather derivatives are traded in an incomplete market setting, standard hedging based pricing methods cannot be applied. For weather derivative payoffs that are independent from the value of the growth optimal portfolio it is shown that the classical actuarial pricing methodology is a particular case of the fair pricing concept. A discrete time model is constructed to approximate historical weather characteristics assuming Gaussian residuals. For particular weather derivatives their fair prices are derived.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 106.

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Date of creation: 01 Sep 2003
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Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:106

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Related research
Keywords: weather derivatives; benchmark approach; growth optimal portfolio; fair pricing; actuarial pricing;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hans Buhlmann & Eckhard Platen, 2002. "A Discrete Time Benchmark Approach for Finance and Insurance," Research Paper Series 74, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  2. Takeaki Kariya, 2003. "Weather Risk Swap Valuation," KIER Working Papers 568, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  3. I. Bajeux-Besnainou, R. Portait, 1997. "The numeraire portfolio: a new perspective on financial theory," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 291-309, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-42, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Long, John Jr., 1990. "The numeraire portfolio," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 29-69, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Eckhard Platen, 2001. "Arbitrage in Continuous Complete Markets," Research Paper Series 72, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  8. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1974. "Long-Term Growth in a Short-Term Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(3), pages 857-85, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Eckhard Platen, 2003. "Diversified Portfolios in a Benchmark Framework," Research Paper Series 87, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Adam Clements & A S Hurn & K A Lindsay, 2008. "Developing analytical distributions for temperature indices for the purposes of pricing temperature-based weather derivatives," NCER Working Paper Series 34, National Centre for Econometric Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Adam Clements & A S Hurn & K A Lindsay, 2008. "Estimating the Payoffs of Temperature-based Weather Derivatives," NCER Working Paper Series 33, National Centre for Econometric Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Eckhard Platen, 2003. "A Benchmark Framework for Risk Management," Research Paper Series 113, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  4. Yuji Yamada, 2008. "Optimal Hedging of Prediction Errors Using Prediction Errors," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 67-95, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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