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Foreign Exchange, Interest and the Dynamics of Public Debt in Latin America

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Author Info
Carlos E. Schonerwald da Silva
Matías Vernengo

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Abstract

The relationship between the exchange rate and public debt is intermediated by two mechanisms. On the one hand, exchange rate devaluation implies higher payment on local currency over the debt denominated in foreign currency. On the other hand, the rise of public debt leads a perception of higher default risk, forcing capital outflows and a devaluation of the exchange rate. The present paper develops a simple model where the exchange is crucial to analyze public debt dynamics. The paper also discusses the recent trajectory of the public debt in Latin America. The dynamics of the exchange rate is important for developing countries that do not have strong currencies and have a significant portion of public debt denominated in US dollars (original sin). Also, primary budget surpluses were crucial for the consistent and significant reduction of the public debt-to-GDP ratio. Hence, the economic expansion has created a larger fiscal space for Latin American economies to expand infrastructure and social spending, and reduce unemployment levels.

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Paper provided by University of Utah, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah with number 2007_02.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2007
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Handle: RePEc:uta:papers:2007_02

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Related research
Keywords: Exchange Rate; Public Debt; Latin America;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
O54 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Does public capital crowd out private capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 171-188, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Lance Taylor, 1998. "Lax Public Sector, Destabilizing Private Sector: Origins of Capital Market Crises," SCEPA Working Papers 1998-11, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School, revised Oct 1998. [Downloadable!]
  4. De Long, J Bradford & Summers, Lawrence H, 1991. "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 445-502, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 2000. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging Market Debt?," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 107-136 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Nathan Perry & Carlos Schönerwald, 2009. "Institutions, Geography, and Terms of Trade in Latin America: A Longitudinal Econometric Analysis," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2009_04, University of Utah, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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