IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/usg/sfwpfi/201813.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Buy Low, Sell High? Do Private Equity Fund Managers Have Market Abilities?

Author

Listed:
  • Tim Jenkinson
  • Stefan Morkoetter
  • Thomas Wetzer

Abstract

When investors commit capital to a private equity fund, the money is not immediately invested but is called by the fund manager throughout an investment period of up to five years. This business model allows private equity fund managers to invest the committed capital at their own discretion, which gives them the flexibility to time the markets. Based on 5,366 private equity deals, which are benchmarked against around 11,000 transaction market multiples and 170,000 trading market multiples, we find evidence that on average private equity funds are able to add value by timing the markets. Throughout the holding period, private equity funds achieve on average a 0.5 EBITDA market multiple expansion. Market timing ability is not captured by performance measures such as the PME, yet it is a potential source of returns for investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Jenkinson & Stefan Morkoetter & Thomas Wetzer, 2018. "Buy Low, Sell High? Do Private Equity Fund Managers Have Market Abilities?," Working Papers on Finance 1813, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:usg:sfwpfi:2018:13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ux-tauri.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/sfwpfi/WPF-1813.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Achleitner, Ann-Kristin & Braun, Reiner & Engel, Nico, 2011. "Value creation and pricing in buyouts: Empirical evidence from Europe and North America," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 146-161.
    2. Agarwal, Vikas & Ruenzi, Stefan & Weigert, Florian, 2017. "Tail risk in hedge funds: A unique view from portfolio holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 610-636.
    3. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan D, 1989. "Mutual Fund Performance: An Analysis of Quarterly Portfolio Holdings," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 393-416, July.
    4. Lee, Cheng Few & Rahman, Shafiqur, 1990. "Market Timing, Selectivity, and Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(2), pages 261-278, April.
    5. Jenkinson, Tim & Sousa, Miguel, 2015. "What determines the exit decision for leveraged buyouts?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 399-408.
    6. Chen, Yong & Liang, Bing, 2007. "Do Market Timing Hedge Funds Time the Market?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 827-856, December.
    7. Phillip Leslie & Paul Oyer, 2008. "Managerial Incentives and Value Creation: Evidence from Private Equity," NBER Working Papers 14331, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Robert S. Harris & Tim Jenkinson & Steven N. Kaplan, 2014. "Private Equity Performance: What Do We Know?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 1851-1882, October.
    9. Coggin, T Daniel & Fabozzi, Frank J & Rahman, Shafiqur, 1993. "The Investment Performance of U.S. Equity Pension Fund Managers: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(3), pages 1039-1055, July.
    10. Andriy Bodnaruk & Bekhan Chokaev & Andrei Simonov, 2019. "Downside Risk Timing by Mutual Funds," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 171-196.
    11. John M. Griffin & Jin Xu, 2009. "How Smart Are the Smart Guys? A Unique View from Hedge Fund Stock Holdings," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2331-2370, July.
    12. Shourun Guo & Edith S. Hotchkiss & Weihong Song, 2011. "Do Buyouts (Still) Create Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(2), pages 479-517, April.
    13. Anthony Chan & Carl R. Chen & Cheng-Few Lee & Shafiqur Rahman, 1990. "A cross-sectional analysis of mutual funds' market timing and security selection skill," Research Paper 9014, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    14. Nicolas P. B. Bollen & Jeffrey A. Busse, 2001. "On the Timing Ability of Mutual Fund Managers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 1075-1094, June.
    15. Lerner, Joshua, 1994. "Venture capitalists and the decision to go public," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 293-316, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Huss & Daniel Steger, 2020. "Diversification and Fund Performance—An Analysis of Buyout Funds," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-17, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jenkinson, Tim & Morkoetter, Stefan & Schori, Tobias & Wetzer, Thomas, 2022. "Buy low, sell high? Do private equity fund managers have market timing abilities?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    2. Jung‐Soon Shin & Minki Kim & Dongjun Oh & Tong Suk Kim, 2019. "Do hedge funds time market tail risk? Evidence from option‐implied tail risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 205-237, February.
    3. Anjum, Sohail & Qayyum, Unbreen & Qureshi, Madeeha Gohar, 2019. "Aggregate performance evaluation of US Equity Mutual Funds - Explaining the performance of Growth Funds vs. Value Funds," MPRA Paper 100043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Zabiulla, 2012. "Macro Forecasting Abilities of Mutual Fund Managers in the Indian Capital Market," Indian Journal of Commerce and Management Studies, Educational Research Multimedia & Publications,India, vol. 3(2), pages 06-11, May.
    5. Romacho, Joao Carlos & Cortez, Maria Ceu, 2006. "Timing and selectivity in Portuguese mutual fund performance," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 348-368, September.
    6. Vikas Agarwal & Stefan Ruenzi & Florian Weigert, 2018. "Unobserved Performance of Hedge Funds," Working Papers on Finance 1825, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    7. Dyaran Bansraj & Han Smit & Vadym Volosovych, 2020. "Can Private Equity Funds Act as Strategic Buyers? Evidence from Buy-and-Build Strategies," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-041/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. Massimo Guidolin & Alexei G. Orlov, 2022. "Can Investors Benefit from Hedge Fund Strategies? Utility-Based, Out-of-Sample Evidence," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(03), pages 1-61, September.
    9. Yi, Li & Liu, Zilan & He, Lei & Qin, Zilong & Gan, Shunli, 2018. "Do Chinese mutual funds time the market?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 1-19.
    10. Keith Cuthbertson & Dirk Nitzsche & Niall O'Sullivan, 2010. "The Market Timing Ability of UK Mutual Funds," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1-2), pages 270-289.
    11. Manuel Ammann & Sebastian Fischer & Florian Weigert, 2018. "Risk Factor Exposure Variation and Mutual Fund Performance," Working Papers on Finance 1817, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Nov 2018.
    12. Mahfooz Alam & Valeed Ahmad Ansari, 2020. "Mutual fund managers’ market timing abilities: Indian evidence," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(4), pages 342-354, July.
    13. Tereza Tykvová, 2018. "Venture capital and private equity financing: an overview of recent literature and an agenda for future research," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 88(3), pages 325-362, May.
    14. Benjamin Hammer & Heiko Hinrichs & Bernhard Schwetzler, 2018. "Does culture affect the performance of private equity buyouts?," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 88(3), pages 393-469, May.
    15. Mahfooz Alam & Valeed Ahmad Ansari, 0. "Mutual fund managers’ market timing abilities: Indian evidence," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 0, pages 1-13.
    16. David R. Gallagher, 2001. "Attribution of investment performance: an analysis of Australian pooled superannuation funds," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 41(1‐2), pages 41-62, July.
    17. Shafiqur Rahman & Cheng-Few Lee & Yaqing Xiao, 2017. "The investment performance, attributes, and investment behavior of ethical equity mutual funds in the US: an empirical investigation," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 91-116, July.
    18. Morkoetter, Stefan & Wetzer, Thomas, 2015. "Do Private Equity Funds Always Pay Less? A Synergy-Related Explanation Based on Add-on Acquisitions," Working Papers on Finance 1522, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Sep 2016.
    19. Keith Cuthbertson & Simon Hayley & Dirk Nitzsche, 2016. "Market and Style Timing: German Equity and Bond Funds," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(4), pages 667-696, September.
    20. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk, 2013. "Performance, stock selection and market timing of the German equity mutual fund industry," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 86-101.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Private Equity; Mergers and Acquisitions; Value Creation; Market Timing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:usg:sfwpfi:2018:13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cfisgch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.