Oracle Properties and Finite Sample Inference of the Adaptive Lasso for Time Series Regression Models
AbstractWe derive new theoretical results on the properties of the adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (adaptive lasso) for time series regression models. In particular we investigate the question of how to conduct finite sample inference on the parameters given an adaptive lasso model for some fixed value of the shrinkage parameter. Central in this study is the test of the hypothesis that a given adaptive lasso parameter equals zero, which therefore tests for a false positive. To this end we construct a simple (conservative) testing procedure and show, theoretically and empirically through extensive Monte Carlo simulations, that the adaptive lasso combines efficient parameter estimation, variable selection, and valid finite sample inference in one step. Moreover, we analytically derive a bias correction factor that is able to significantly improve the empirical coverage of the test on the active variables. Finally, we apply the introduced testing procedure to investigate the relation between the short rate dynamics and the economy, thereby providing a statistical foundation (from a model choice perspective) to the classic Taylor rule monetary policy model.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science in its series Economics Working Paper Series with number 1327.
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2013
Date of revision:
Adaptive lasso; Time series; Oracle properties; Finite sample inference; Taylor rule monetary policy model.;
Other versions of this item:
- Francesco Audrino & Lorenzo Camponovo, 2013. "Oracle Properties and Finite Sample Inference of the Adaptive Lasso for Time Series Regression Models," Papers 1312.1473, arXiv.org.
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-10-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2013-10-25 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2013-10-25 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-MAC-2013-10-25 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-ORE-2013-10-25 (Operations Research)
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