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A Simple Model of Multiple Equilibria Based on Risk

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James S. Costain

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Abstract

This paper shows how risk may aggravate fluctuations in economies with imperfect insurance and multiple assets. A two period job matching model is studied, in which risk averse agents act both as workers and as entrepreneurs. They choose between two types of investment: one type is riskless, while the other is a risky activity that creates jobs. Equilibrium is unique under full insurance. If investment is fully insured but unemployment risk is uninsured, then precautionary saving behavior dampens output fluctuations. However, if both investment and employment are uninsured, then an increase in unemployment gives agents an incentive to shift investment away from the risky asset, further increasing unemployment. This positive feedback may lead to multiple Pareto ranked equilibria. An overlapping generations version of the model may exhibit poverty traps or persistent multiplicity. Greater insurance is doubly beneficial in this context since it can both prevent multiplicity and promote risky investment.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 407.

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Date of creation: Mar 1998
Date of revision: Jul 1999
Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:407

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Related research
Keywords: Multiple equilibria; imperfect insurance; matching; prudence; temperance; precautionary saving; portfolio choice;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Monique C. Ebell, 2000. "Why Are Asset Returns more Volatile During Recessions? A Theoretical Examination," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1554, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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