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Correctly Analyzing the Balance of Payments Constraint on Growth

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  • Arslan Razmi

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    (University of Massachusetts-Amherst)

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    Abstract

    The BPCG model provides an interesting hypothesis regarding economic growth. The main implication is that world demand places a constraint on individual country performance. I discuss this implication and argue that tests of the BPCG model have essentially been tests of the hypothesis that trade is balanced over the long run; a plausible hypothesis but one that need not hold mainly due to demand-side constraints. I then discuss the role of relative prices and investment, point out logical inadequacies in the traditional BPCG framework, and suggest an alternative theoretical framework to investigate its robustness. Our theoretical and empirical explorations contribute to reconciling evidence supporting the BPCG hypothesis with recent work that consistently ?nds an important role for the level of the real exchange rate and investment, independently of world demand growth.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics in its series UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers with number 2013-12.

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    Date of creation: 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:ums:papers:2013-12

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    Keywords: Balance of payments-constrained growth model; accumulation; demand-led growth; real exchange rates; terms of trade.;

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    1. R. Dornbusch & S. Fischer & P. A. Samuelson, 1976. "Comparative Advantage, Trade and Payments in a Ricardian Model With a Continuum of Goods," Working papers 178, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    2. Thirlwall, Anthony P & Hussain, Mohammed Nureldin, 1982. "The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 498-510, November.
    3. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2006. "A Structural Economic Dynamics Approach To Balance-Of-Payments-Constrained Growth," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 119, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    4. Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2003. "Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves and Long Term Growth," MPRA Paper 20069, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Elisabetta Falcetti & Luis Catão, 1999. "Determinants of Argentina's External Trade," IMF Working Papers 99/121, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Gabriel Porcile & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2010. "Real exchange rate and elasticity of labour supply in a balance-of-payments-constrained macrodynamics," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(6), pages 1019-1039.
    7. Krugman, Paul, 1988. "Exchange rates and international adjustment," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 63-87, October.
    8. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    9. Arslan Razmi & Martin Rapetti & Peter Skott, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Development," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2011-08, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    10. Frenkel, Roberto & Ros, Jaime, 2006. "Unemployment and the real exchange rate in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 631-646, April.
    11. Blecker, Robert A., 1996. "The new economic integration: Structuralist models of North-South trade and investment liberalization," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 321-345, September.
    12. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Niroomand, Farhang, 1998. "Long-run price elasticities and the Marshall-Lerner condition revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 101-109, October.
    13. Taylor, Lance, 1994. "Gap models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 17-34, October.
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