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Political cycles, fiscal deficits and output spillovers in Europe

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  • André Sapir
  • Khalid Sekkat

Abstract

This paper investigates whether national elections in Europe generate political cycles in other European countries, and, if so, whether these spillover effects are likely to survive inside EMU. The paper first tests whether elections in Germany affect macroeconomic outcomes in other European countries and then investigates the impact of elections on budget deficits. The results indicate that German politics significantly impacts macroeconomic variables in other European countries, and also that politics significantly affects the behaviour of European budgetary policy. The prospect of elections tends to increase public deficits in recessions, whereas left-wing governments tend to be more deficit-prone than right-wing governments regardless of the state of the economy. Moreover, the existence of political cycles spillovers among European countries suggest that there may be a need for electoral coordination. Copyright 2002 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series ULB Institutional Repository with number 2013/7346.

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Date of creation: Mar 2002
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Publication status: Published in: Public Choice (2002) v.111 n° 1-2,p.195-205
Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/7346

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Cited by:
  1. Carlos Martinez-Mongay & Khalid Sekkat, 2005. "Progressive Taxation, Macroeconomic Stabilization and efficiency in Europe," European Economy - Economic Papers, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission 233, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  2. Carlos Martinez-Mongay & Khalid Sekkat, 2003. "The tradeoff between efficiency and macroeconomic stabilization in Europe," Working Papers CEB, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles 04-024.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  3. J. Stephen Ferris & Stanley L. Winer, 2006. "Politics, political competition and the political budget cycle in Canada, 1870 - 2000: a search across alternative fiscal instruments," Carleton Economic Papers, Carleton University, Department of Economics 06-05, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
  4. Antoni Castells & Alejandro Esteller & Maite Vilalta, 2004. "Full Characterisation of the Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustment: Evidence from Spanish Municipalities," Working Papers 2004/3, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
  5. André Sapir, 2002. "EMU in the early years: differences and credibility," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8134, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  6. Tansey, Michael & Raju, Sudhakar & Stellern, Michael, 2005. "Price controls, trade protectionism and political business cycles in the U.S. steel industry," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1097-1109, December.

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