This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Politics, political competition and the political budget cycle in Canada, 1870 - 2000: a search across alternative fiscal instruments

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
J. Stephen Ferris () (Department of Economics, Carleton University)
Stanley L. Winer () (School of Public Policy and Administration, Carleton University)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

In this paper Engel-Granger time series methodology is used to combine trending economic variables with stationary political factors to search for well-defined political influences on central government budgets in Canada over the entire post-Confederation time period from 1870 to 2000. To motivate such an inquiry we first investigate and find evidence of partisan political influence on Canada’s macro aggregates. However, because politics can influence economic outcomes only if there is a transmission mechanism through actual public policy choices, our finding of cycles in real output growth begs the question of whether such cycles arise through fiscal policy. Our analysis of three main fiscal policy instruments - public non-interest expenditure, taxation and the deficit net of interest - gives little support to any current political theory of public budgets, but does support the hypothesis that the degree of political competition matters for policy choices in both the long and short run. This new channel for the influence of politics on economic policy has not previously been isolated empirically in Canada and poses new questions in trying to reconcile the previous mixed results with respect to the influence of politics on economic aggregates.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www2.carleton.ca/economics/ccms/wp-content/ccms-files/cep06-05.pdf
File Format:
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Carleton University, Department of Economics in its series Carleton Economic Papers with number 06-05.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 43 pages
Date of creation:
Date of revision: 08 Aug 2006
Publication status: Published: Carleton Economic Paper
Handle: RePEc:car:carecp:06-05

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa Ontario, K1S 5B6 Canada
Phone: 1-613-520-3744
Fax: 1-613-520-3906

Order Information:
Email:

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Deirdre Nelson).

Related research
Keywords: expenditure size of government; tax-share; government deficits; political competition; political business cycles; political budget cycles; monetary policy; cointegration and error correction analysis.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
H1 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government
H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Adi Brender & Allan Drazen, 2004. "Political Budget Cycles in New versus Established Democracies," NBER Working Papers 10539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 651-78, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Block, Steven A., 2002. "Political business cycles, democratization, and economic reform: the case of Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 205-228, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Haynes, Stephen E & Stone, Joe A, 1990. "Political Models of the Business Cycle Should Be Revived," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 442-65, July.
  6. Heckelman, Jac C, 2002. " Electoral Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy: The Evidence from Canada," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 113(1-2), pages 179-89, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Rogoff, Kenneth & Sibert, Anne, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Over 80% of the top 1000 economists are registered on RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-11.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.