Pattern of trade and European economic integration : an unexpected relation
AbstractIn this article, the degree of integration between European countries is linked to the evolution of the pattern of trade. Evolution of the long-run sensitivity between European outputs is estimated by recursive Fully-Modifed Ordinary Least Squares (FM-OLS) and compared to a recursive index of intra-industry trade. Significant correlations are found between integration and intra-industry trade share. Interestingly, correlations have not all the same sign: positive for one group of countries and negative for others. The explanatory variable seems to be the initial intra-industry trade share. In the last section, a Hansen test is computed and confirms a threshold effect of the pattern of trade on economic integration. Finally, the development of the intra-industry trade due to the creation of the European Monetary Union has a positive e¤ect on integration for some countries but also a negative e¤ect on integration for other European countries.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS in its series Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) with number 200614.
Date of creation: 2006
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
- F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-06-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2006-06-10 (European Economics)
- NEP-INT-2006-06-10 (International Trade)
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