IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tin/wpaper/20120067.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What drives the Quotes of Earnings Forecasters?

Author

Listed:
  • Bert de Bruijn

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Philip Hans Franses

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Abstract

Earnings forecasts can be useful for investment decisions. Research on earnings forecasts has focused on forecast performance in relation to firm characteristics, on categorizing the analysts into groups with similar behaviour and on the effect of an earnings announcement by thefirm on future earnings forecasts. In this paper we investigate the factors that determine the value of the forecast and also investigate to what extent the timing of the forecast can be modeled. We propose a novel methodology that allows for such an investigation. As an illustration we analyze within-year earnings forecasts for AMD in the period 1997 to 2011, where the data are obtained from the I/B/E/S database. Our empirical findings suggest clear drivers of the value and the timing of the earnings forecast. We thus show that not only the forecasts themselves are predictable, but that also the timing of the quotes is predictable to some extent.

Suggested Citation

  • Bert de Bruijn & Philip Hans Franses, 2012. "What drives the Quotes of Earnings Forecasters?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-067/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20120067
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/12067.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brown, Lawrence D., 1993. "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 295-320, November.
    2. McCulloch, Robert E. & Polson, Nicholas G. & Rossi, Peter E., 2000. "A Bayesian analysis of the multinomial probit model with fully identified parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 173-193, November.
    3. Clement, Michael B. & Hales, Jeffrey & Xue, Yanfeng, 2011. "Understanding analysts' use of stock returns and other analysts' revisions when forecasting earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 279-299, April.
    4. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    5. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Woojin Kim, 2010. "Do Analysts Herd? An Analysis of Recommendations and Market Reactions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 901-937, February.
    6. Kim, Yongtae & Lobo, Gerald J. & Song, Minsup, 2011. "Analyst characteristics, timing of forecast revisions, and analyst forecasting ability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2158-2168, August.
    7. Brown, Lawrence D., 1993. "Reply to commentaries on "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 343-344, November.
    8. Landsman, Wayne R. & Maydew, Edward L. & Thornock, Jacob R., 2012. "The information content of annual earnings announcements and mandatory adoption of IFRS," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 34-54.
    9. Michael B. Clement & Senyo Y. Tse, 2005. "Financial Analyst Characteristics and Herding Behavior in Forecasting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 307-341, February.
    10. Sheng, Xuguang & Thevenot, Maya, 2012. "A new measure of earnings forecast uncertainty," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 21-33.
    11. Bolliger, Guido, 2004. "The characteristics of individual analysts' forecasts in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2283-2309, September.
    12. Brown, Philip, 1993. "Comments on 'Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research' by L. Brown," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 331-335, November.
    13. Zellner, Arnold & Ando, Tomohiro, 2010. "A direct Monte Carlo approach for Bayesian analysis of the seemingly unrelated regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 33-45, November.
    14. John C. Easterwood & Stacey R. Nutt, 1999. "Inefficiency in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: Systematic Misreaction or Systematic Optimism?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1777-1797, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bert de Bruijn & Philip Hans Franses, 2013. "Forecasting Earnings Forecasts," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-121/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Bert De Bruijn & Philip Hans Franses, 2018. "How Informative Are Earnings Forecasts? †," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-20, July.
    3. Bert de Bruijn & Philip Hans Franses, 2015. "How Informative are the Unpredictable Components of Earnings Forecasts?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-032/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Machado, André & Lima, Fabiano Guasti, 2021. "Sell-side analyst reports and decision-maker reactions: Role of heuristics," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    5. Jung, Jay Heon & Pae, Jinhan & Yoo, Choong-Yuel, 2015. "Do analysts treat winners and losers differently when forecasting earnings?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 531-549.
    6. Dan Palmon & Bharat Sarath & Hua C. Xin, 2020. "Bold Stock Recommendations: Informative or Worthless?†," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 773-801, June.
    7. Dana Hollie & Philip B. Shane & Qiuhong Zhao & Steven Cahan, 2017. "The role of financial analysts in stock market efficiency with respect to annual earnings and its cash and accrual components," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(1), pages 199-237, March.
    8. Po‐Chang Chen & Ganapathi S. Narayanamoorthy & Theodore Sougiannis & Hui Zhou, 2020. "Analyst underreaction and the post‐forecast revision drift," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(9-10), pages 1151-1181, October.
    9. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    10. Anolli, Mario & Beccalli, Elena & Molyneux, Philip, 2014. "Bank earnings forecasts, risk and the crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 309-335.
    11. Andrew C. Call & Nathan Y. Sharp & Paul A. Wong, 2019. "Changes in analysts’ stock recommendations following regulatory action against their brokerage," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 1184-1213, December.
    12. Lawrence D. Brown & Andrew C. Call & Michael B. Clement & Nathan Y. Sharp, 2015. "Inside the “Black Box” of Sell‐Side Financial Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 1-47, March.
    13. Lin, Hai & Tao, Xinyuan & Wu, Chunchi, 2022. "Forecasting earnings with combination of analyst forecasts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 133-159.
    14. John Garcia, 2021. "Analyst herding and firm-level investor sentiment," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 35(4), pages 461-494, December.
    15. Higgins, Huong, 2013. "Can securities analysts forecast intangible firms’ earnings?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 155-174.
    16. Kim, Yongtae & Lobo, Gerald J. & Song, Minsup, 2011. "Analyst characteristics, timing of forecast revisions, and analyst forecasting ability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2158-2168, August.
    17. Harris, Richard D.F. & Wang, Pengguo, 2019. "Model-based earnings forecasts vs. financial analysts' earnings forecasts," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 424-437.
    18. Gerrit Sarens & Giuseppe D’Onza, 2017. "The perception of financial analysts on risk, risk management, and internal control disclosure: Evidence from Belgium and Italy," International Journal of Disclosure and Governance, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(2), pages 118-138, May.
    19. Beuselinck, C.A.C. & Joos, P.P.M. & Khurana, I.K. & van der Meulen, S., 2010. "Mandatory Adoption of IFRS and Analysts’ Forecasts Information Properties," Other publications TiSEM ef0de49e-ed91-4825-8b6f-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    20. Rees, Lynn & Sharp, Nathan Y. & Wong, Paul A., 2017. "Working on the weekend: Do analysts strategically time the release of their recommendation revisions?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 104-121.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Earnings Forecasts; Earnings Announcements; Financial Markets; Financial Analysts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20120067. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tinbergen Office +31 (0)10-4088900 (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tinbenl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.