A Production Function Method of Estimating the Output Gap
Abstract[TR] Bu calisma, basit bir uretim fonksiyonunu temel alarak Turkiye icin bir cikti acigi gostergesi hesaplamaktadir. 2005-2008 doneminde cikti aciginda pozitif duzey olusmus ve 2007 : Q4 donemi tepe noktasi olarak gozlenmistir. 2009 yilinda ise son kuresel krizin etkisiyle uretim duzeyi, potansiyel duzeyinin altinda yer almis ve cikti acigi 2009 : Q1 doneminde dip noktasina ulasmistir. Bu calismada ortaya konulan cikti acigi hesaplamalari, yeni Keynesyen bir model ve Bayesci yontem kullanilarak Turkiye’de cikti aciginin hesaplandigi, Alp, Ogunc ve Sarikaya (2012) calismasinin bulgulari ile karsilastirilmistir. Niceliksel olarak bazi farkliliklar gozlenmekle beraber; iki calismada da niteliksel olarak benzer cikti acigi bulgulari ortaya konmaktadir. [EN] This note estimates an output gap measure for Turkey using a production function approach relying on a simplistic representation of the production technology. There is a large positive swing in the output gap during 2005–2008 and output gap reached its peak in 2007 : Q4. Output level fell below its potential dramatically as a result of the global economic crisis in 2009 hitting a trough in 2009 : Q1 and negative output gap as a percentage difference from the potential output was around 12 percent. Output gap estimates in this note and the ones obtained in Alp, Ogunc, and Sarikaya (2012), using Bayesian estimation of a New Keynesian model, exhibit a similar pattern qualitatively, whereas there are some differences in quantitative terms.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series CBT Research Notes in Economics with number 1219.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Head Office, Istiklal Cad. 10 Ulus, 06100 Ankara
Phone: (90 312) 507 5000
Fax: (90 312) 507 5640
Web page: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-08-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2012-08-23 (MENA - Middle East & North Africa)
- NEP-MAC-2012-08-23 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Harun ALP & Yusuf Soner BAŞKAYA & Mustafa KILINÇ & Canan YÜKSEL, 2011. "Estimating Optimal Hodrick-Prescott Filter Smoothing Parameter for Turkey," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 26(306), pages 09-23.
- Harun Alp & Fethi Ogunc & Cagri Sarikaya, 2012. "Monetary Policy and Output Gap : Mind the Composition," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1207, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2000. "Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap," IMF Working Papers 00/59, International Monetary Fund.
- Vivian Chen & Abhay Gupta & Andre Therrien & Gad Levanon & Bart van Ark, 2010. "Recent Productivity Developments in the World Economy: An Overview from The Conference Board Total Economy Database," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 19, pages 3-19, Spring.
- Tetsuya Konuki, 2008. "Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap in Slovakia," IMF Working Papers 08/275, International Monetary Fund.
- F. OğunC & D. Ece, 2004. "Estimating the output gap for Turkey: an unobserved components approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 177-182.
- Hakan Kara & Fethi Ogunc & Umit Ozlale & Cagri Sarikaya, 2007. "Estimating the Output Gap in a Changing Economy," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 74(1), pages 269-289, July.
- Giang Huong Nguyen, 2014. "Estimating the Output Gap to Support the Management of Interest Rates in Vietnam," IHEID Working Papers 05-2014, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
- Ufuk Demiroglu & Cagri Sarikaya, 2013. "The Capacity Buildup over the Past Decade and the Capacity Utilization Rate in Turkey," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1312, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Soner Baskaya).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.