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Turkiye Ekonomisi Is Cevrimlerinin Kuresel Ekonomi ile Iliskisi

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  • Huseyin Cagri Akkoyun
  • Bahar Sen Dogan
  • Mahmut Gunay

Abstract

[TR] Bu calismada Turkiye ekonomisinin kuresel ekonomi ile iliskisi incelenmektedir. Bu dogrultuda, milli gelirimiz ile bilesenlerinin cevrimleriyle ABD ve euro bolgesi is cevrimleri arasindaki korelasyonlar farkli frekans bantlari icin hesaplanmistir. Sonuclar, Turkiye ekonomisinin euro bolgesi ile daha cok kisa ve orta vadede, ABD ile ise daha ziyade orta ve uzun vadede iliskili olduguna isaret etmektedir. ABD ile olan iliskinin gucu, dis ticaretten baska kanallarin da ekonomimiz icin onemini gostermektedir. Ayrica sonuclar, Turkiye ekonomisinin bu iki ekonomi ile iliskisinin derecesinin 2001 sonrasi donemde kayda deger olcude arttigini gostermektedir. [EN] In this study, we aim at investigating the sensitivity of Turkish economy to the global economy. In this framework, we calculate the correlation between “cycles of gross domestic product (GDP) and its components” and “cycles of the US GDP and Euro Area GDP” for different frequency bands. The results indicate that Euro Area developments are correlated with Turkish economy mostly in the short and medium term while the developments in the US economy are correlated with Turkish economy mostly in the medium and long run. The high correlation with the US also suggests that non-trade channels for Turkish economy are also important. In addition, results show that the correlation of the Turkish economy with foreign economies significantly increased after 2001.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series CBT Research Notes in Economics with number 1119.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1119

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  1. H. Cagri Akkoyun & Oguz Atuk & N. Alpay Kocak & M. Utku Ozmen, 2011. "Filtering Short Term Fluctuations in Inflation Analysis," Working Papers 1120, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band Pass Filter," NBER Working Papers 7257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
  3. Patrick M. Crowley, 2007. "A Guide To Wavelets For Economists ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 207-267, 04.
  4. Harun ALP & Yusuf Soner BAŞKAYA & Mustafa KILINÇ & Canan YÜKSEL, 2011. "Estimating Optimal Hodrick-Prescott Filter Smoothing Parameter for Turkey," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 26(306), pages 09-23.
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