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Technology, risk and social policy. An empirical investigation

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  • Dario Guarascio
  • Stefano Sacchi

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of exposure to technological risk in shaping social policy preferences, specifically on support for universal basic income and means-tested generalised minimum income. Evidence is provided for Italy, to exploit the availability of high-quality data, allowing measures of two dimensions of technological risk. Objective risk hinges upon the degree of substitutability of one's occupation by machines, while subjective risk concerns a worker's perception of their substitutability. We posit that exposure to technological risk induces individuals to ask for protection, and thus increases support for social policy. We test two hypotheses: first, that exposure to objective risk of replacement by machines is correlated with support for both safety nets; second, that such effect is increased by high perception of risk. On the whole, results confirm a strong relationship between exposure to technological risk and support for social safety nets, once objective risk is disentangled from subjective perceptions. However, we find that such relationship only holds for men, while it cannot be confirmed for women.

Suggested Citation

  • Dario Guarascio & Stefano Sacchi, 2021. "Technology, risk and social policy. An empirical investigation," LEM Papers Series 2021/16, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2021/16
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    1. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2019. "Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 3-30, Spring.
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    5. Rehm,Philipp, 2016. "Risk Inequality and Welfare States," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107108165.
    6. Parolin, Zachary & Siöland, Linus, 2019. "Support for a Universal Basic Income: A Demand-Capacity Paradox?," OSF Preprints fvh92, Center for Open Science.
    7. Rehm,Philipp, 2016. "Risk Inequality and Welfare States," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107518872.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Weisstanner, 2022. "COVID-19 and welfare state support: the case of universal basic income [Attitudinal polarization towards the redistributive role of the state in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis]," Policy and Society, Darryl S. Jarvis and M. Ramesh, vol. 41(1), pages 96-110.
    2. Nicola Cassandro & Marco Centra & Dario Guarascio & Piero Esposito, 2021. "What drives employment–unemployment transitions? Evidence from Italian task-based data," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(3), pages 1109-1147, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technological change; routine occupations; social policy; generalised minimum income; universal basic income; safety nets.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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