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La débâcle de l'austérité: Perspectives 2012-2013

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  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE)

Abstract

Les politiques d’austérité, enclenchées par les pays européens pour sortir de la crise budgétaire, se poursuivent, malgré la rechute de l’activité enregistrée depuis la mi-2011. La volonté d’assainissement budgétaire, certes louable, s’avère pourtant contreproductive en période de récession. Les réductions de recettes fiscales liées au fléchissement de l’activité, ainsi que les multiplicateurs budgétaires élevés freinent la baisse du déficit, entraînant une surenchère dans l’austérité et créant une dangereuse spirale dans laquelle les pays de la zone euro sont en train de s’enfermer. Ce numéro analyse les perspectives économiques de l'Europe, dans le contexte d'une timide reprise de l'activité dans les pays émergents et aux États-Unis. Ainsi, en l’absence de changement de cap, la récession en zone euro se poursuivrait en 2013. Après une croissance de 0,1 % en 2012, la France, quant à elle, devrait connaître une stagnation de l’activité en 2013.

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Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09l92ah01s1.

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Date of creation: Oct 2012
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Publication status: Published in Revue de l'OFCE - Analyse et prévisions, 2012
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09l92ah01s1

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  1. Alberto F. Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2009. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes Versus Spending," NBER Working Papers 15438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise If the Government Buys More Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 183-249.
  3. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78 - 121.
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  6. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," NBER Working Papers 17447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Michael Woodford, 2010. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," Discussion Papers, Columbia University, Department of Economics 0910-09, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  8. Alberto Alesina & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2012. "The Output Effect of Fiscal Consolidations," NBER Working Papers 18336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Michael Kumhof & Dirk Muir & Carlos de Resende & Jan in ‘t Veld & René Lalonde & Davide Furceri & Annabelle Mourougane & John Roberts & Stephen Snudden & Mathias Trabandt & Günter Coenen &, 2010. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models," IMF Working Papers 10/73, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "What determines government spending multipliers?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 27(72), pages 521-565, October.
  11. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
  12. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 233-297.
  13. Jérôme Creel & Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2011. "Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps. Les multiplicateurs budgétaires au cours du cycle," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 61-88.
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