Cohort Effects in Wages and Promotions
AbstractThis paper studies the long-term effect of business cycle, employment rate and employment growth rate on later wages and promotions. Using Swedish employer-employee match data, we find that workers who enter the labor market during a recovery phase of a business cycle (when the employment rate is still low but employment growth is high) receive higher-than-average wages in the long-run. However, these long-term effects on wages are almost entirely driven by the differences in promotion speeds between cohorts. Workers starting in a recovery period are hired into slightly lower ranks, but are promoted at a higher speed than comparable workers during a contraction period. Simple theoretical models based on downward rigidity of wages and promotions, long-term contract, or stigma cannot explain a broad pattern of our findings, but models based on human capital, matching, and cyclical hiring can.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research in its series Discussion Papers with number 07-025.
Date of creation: Dec 2007
Date of revision:
business cycle; employment; wage; promotion;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
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- Sylvia Frühwirth‐Schnatter & Christoph Pamminger & Andrea Weber & Rudolf Winter‐Ebmer, 2012.
"Labor market entry and earnings dynamics: Bayesian inference using mixtures‐of‐experts Markov chain clustering,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 1116-1137, November.
- Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter & Christoph Pamminger & Andrea Weber & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2010. "Labor Market Entry and Earnings Dynamics: Bayesian Inference Using Mixtures-of-Experts Markov Chain Clustering," NRN working papers 2010-14, The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
- Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter & Andrea Weber & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2010. "Labor Market Entry and Earnings Dynamics: Bayesian Inference Using Mixtures-of-Experts Markov Chain Clustering," Economics working papers 2010-11, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
- Illong Kwon & Eva Meyersson Milgrom, 2010. "Working for Female Managers: Gender Hierarchy in the Workplace," Discussion Papers 09-006, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
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