Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Labor Market Entry and Earnings Dynamics: Bayesian Inference Using Mixtures-of-Experts Markov Chain Clustering

Contents:

Author Info

Abstract

This paper analyzes patterns in the earnings development of young labor market en- trants over their life cycle. We identify four distinctly di®erent types of transition patterns between discrete earnings states in a large administrative data set. Further, we investigate the e®ects of labor market conditions at the time of entry on the probability of belonging to each transition type. To estimate our statistical model we use a model-based clustering approach. The statistical challenge in our application comes from the di±culty in extending distance-based clustering approaches to the problem of identify groups of similar time series in a panel of discrete-valued time series. We use Markov chain clustering, proposed by Pam- minger and FrÄuhwirth-Schnatter (2010), which is an approach for clustering discrete-valued time series obtained by observing a categorical variable with several states. This method is based on ¯nite mixtures of ¯rst-order time-homogeneous Markov chain models. In order to analyze group membership we present an extension to this approach by formulating a prob- abilistic model for the latent group indicators within the Bayesian classi¯cation rule using a multinomial logit model.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.econ.jku.at/papers/2010/wp1011.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria in its series Economics working papers with number 2010-11.

as in new window
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:jku:econwp:2010_11

Contact details of provider:
Fax: +43 732-2468-8238
Web page: http://www.econ.jku.at/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Labor Market Entry Conditions; Transition Data; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Multinomial Logit; Panel Data; Auxiliary Mixture Sampler; Bayesian Statistics;

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia & Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2004. "Model-based Clustering of Multiple Time Series," CEPR Discussion Papers 4650, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Konrad Banachewicz & Aad van der Vaart & Andr� Lucas, 2006. "Modeling Portfolio Defaults using Hidden Markov Models with Covariates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-094/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  3. Paul Oyer, 2006. "The Macro-Foundations of Microeconomics: Initial Labor Market Conditions and Long-Term Outcomes for Economists," NBER Working Papers 12157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Philip Oreopoulos & Till von Wachter & Andrew Heisz, 2006. "The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession: Hysteresis and Heterogeneity in the Market for College Graduates," NBER Working Papers 12159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2002. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," CeMMAP working papers CWP18/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  6. Paul Oyer, 2006. "Initial Labor Market Conditions and Long-Term Outcomes for Economists," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 143-160, Summer.
  7. Illoong Kwon & Eva Meyersson Milgrom, 2007. "Cohort Effects in Wages and Promotions," Discussion Papers 07-025, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  8. Josef Zweimüller & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer & Rafael Lalive & Andreas Kuhn & Jean-Philippe Wuellrich & Oliver Ruf & Simon Büchi, 2009. "Austrian social security database," IEW - Working Papers 410, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    • Josef Zweimüller & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer & Rafael Lalive & Andreas Kuhn & Jean-Philippe Wuellrich & Oliver Ruf & Simon Büchi, 2009. "Austrian Social Security Database," NRN working papers 2009-03, The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  9. Yuji Genda & Ayako Kondo & Souichi Ohta, 2010. "Long-Term Effects of a Recession at Labor Market Entry in Japan and the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(1).
  10. Oddbjørn Raaum & Knut Røed, 2006. "Do Business Cycle Conditions at the Time of Labor Market Entry Affect Future Employment Prospects?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 193-210, May.
  11. Juarez, Miguel A. & Steel, Mark F. J., 2006. "Model-based Clustering of non-Gaussian Panel Data," MPRA Paper 880, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Kahn, Lisa B., 2010. "The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 303-316, April.
  13. Fraley C. & Raftery A.E., 2002. "Model-Based Clustering, Discriminant Analysis, and Density Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 611-631, June.
  14. Andrea Weber, 2002. "State dependence and wage dynamics: a heterogeneous Markov chain model for wage mobility in Austria," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 D2-2, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  15. Kondo, Ayako, 2007. "Does the first job really matter? State dependency in employment status in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 379-402, September.
  16. Fruhwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia & Fruhwirth, Rudolf, 2007. "Auxiliary mixture sampling with applications to logistic models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3509-3528, April.
  17. Juárez, Miguel A. & Steel, Mark F. J., 2010. "Model-Based Clustering of Non-Gaussian Panel Data Based on Skew-t Distributions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(1), pages 52-66.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter, 2011. "Panel data analysis: a survey on model-based clustering of time series," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 251-280, December.
  2. Beatrice Brunner & Andreas Kuhn, 2010. "The Impact of Labor Market Entry Condition on Initial Job Assignment, Human Capital Accumulation, and Wages," NRN working papers 2010-15, The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  3. Brunner, Beatrice & Kuhn, Andreas, 2010. "The Impact of Labor Market Entry Conditions on Initial Job Assignment, Human Capital Accumulation, and Wages," IZA Discussion Papers 5360, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Christoph Pamminger & Regina Tüchler, 2011. "A Bayesian Analysis of Female Wage Dynamics Using Markov Chain Clustering," NRN working papers 2011-04, The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  5. Beatrice Brunner & Andreas Kuhn, 2010. "The impact of labor market entry conditions on initial job assignment, human capital accumulation, and wages," IEW - Working Papers 520, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jku:econwp:2010_11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ren� B�heim).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.