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Measuring financial stress and economic sensitivity in CEE countries

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Author Info

  • Maciej Krzak
  • Grzegorz Poniatowski
  • Katarzyna Wasik

Abstract

This report presents the methodology for the construction of the Financial Stress Index (FSI) and the Economic Sensitivity Index (ESI) and investigates the economic situation in twelve Central and East European Countries (CEECs) between 2001 and 2012. The objective of this paper is to capture key features of financial and economic vulnerability and examine the co-movement of economic turmoil and financial disturbances that strongly affected the CEECs in the last decade. Our main finding is that the FSI can be used as a leading indicator and can be used to recognize changing trends in the index. A shift in the value of the index proves that EU accession has a positive, but minor influence on financial stability in the CEECs. On the other hand, the impact of the introduction of the euro in Estonia, Slovakia and Slovenia is ambiguous. For most of the countries in our sample, in 2007, the FSI started to grow rapidly, reaching its peak around the third quarter of 2008. Consequently, financial stress reained high for a few quarters and started to fall gradually. For a number of countries, we observe higher financial stress in the latest period of our analysis, i.e. 2010-2012. However, the value of the FSI was significantly lower than three years earlier. The results show that indices might be helpful in predicting future recessions. However, forecasting properties seem to be limited at this stage of our work.

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File URL: http://www.case-research.eu/sites/default/files/publications/CNR_117.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research in its series CASE Network Reports with number 0117.

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Length: 65 pages
Date of creation: 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sec:cnrepo:0117

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Keywords: financial stress; economic sensitivity; economic indicators; Central and Eastern Europe;

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References

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  1. Rodrik, Dani, 2006. "The Social Cost of Foreign Exchange Reserves," CEPR Discussion Papers 5483, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2013. "Measuring financial stress in transition economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 597-611.
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  7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," NBER Working Papers 9908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003. "Debt intolerance," MPRA Paper 13932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu, 2009. "Forecasting Romanian Financial System Stability using a Stochastic Simulation Model," Working Papers 2009.4, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
  9. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2008. "Assessing Romanian financial sector stability: the importance of the international economic climate," MPRA Paper 16581, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Feb 2009.
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