IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sch/wpaper/367.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Relationship between fiscal deficit composition and economic growth in India: A time series econometric analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ramu, M R Anantha
  • Gayithri, K.

    (Institute for Social and Economic Change)

Abstract

High and persistent fiscal deficit is one of the major macroeconomic problems in India since the mid-1980s. Fiscal consolidation is in the forefront of policy discussion in India not only at present but since the early 1990s. But the actual administrative measure to control it constitutionally by enacting an Act took place in 2003 and the Fiscal Responsibility & Budget Management (FRBM) Act came into force in April 2004. The major reason behind controlling fiscal deficit is its adverse effect on the macro economy, particularly output growth. Monetary policy makers in India (RBI) argue that high deficit will adversely affect growth and hence requires control. But fiscal policy makers (Ministry of Finance) argue that government spending will promote growth. Hence, there exists a puzzle about how fiscal deficit is affecting GDP in India. This paper tries to answer the puzzle by taking up a long-term time series analysis starting from 1980-81 to 2012-13. It also carries a detailed analysis by including the composition of fiscal deficit and its impact on GDP. By adopting a Vector Error Correction method, this paper proves that fiscal deficit is adversely affecting growth and also argues that if fiscal deficit money is spent on capital formation, it promotes growth, supporting the ‘Golden Rule’ of public finance

Suggested Citation

  • Ramu, M R Anantha & Gayithri, K., 2016. "Relationship between fiscal deficit composition and economic growth in India: A time series econometric analysis," Working Papers 367, Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore.
    • Handle: RePEc:sch:wpaper:367
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.isec.ac.in/WP%20367%20-%20Anantha%20Ramu%20and%20K%20Gayithri%20-%20Final.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin, Ricardo & Fardmanesh, Mohsen, 1990. "Fiscal Variables and Growth: A Cross-Sectional Analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 239-251, March.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Adam, Christopher S. & Bevan, David L., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and growth in developing countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(4), pages 571-597, April.
    4. Chen, Baizhu & Feng, Yi, 2000. "Determinants of economic growth in China: Private enterprise, education, and openness," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15.
    5. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, December.
    6. Nelson, Michael A & Singh, Ram D, 1994. "The Deficit-Growth Connection: Some Recent Evidence from Developing Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(1), pages 167-191, October.
    7. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    8. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    9. Panagariya, Arvind, 2011. "India: The Emerging Giant," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199751563.
    10. Stern, Nicholas, 1991. "The Determinants of Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(404), pages 122-133, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anantha Ramu M.R. & K. Gayithri, 2017. "Fiscal Consolidation versus Infrastructural Obligations," Journal of Infrastructure Development, India Development Foundation, vol. 9(1), pages 49-67, June.
    2. Dinabandhu Sethi & V. V. Subba Rao & Asit Ranjan Mohanty, 2020. "Threshold level of fiscal deficit: revisiting FRBMA limit in Indian states," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 22(2), pages 233-249, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramu M R, Anantha & Gayithri, K, 2016. "Fiscal deficit composition and economic growth relation in India: A time series econometric analysis," MPRA Paper 76304, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Sep 2016.
    2. Dakpogan, Arnaud & Smit, Eon, 2018. "The effect of electricity losses on GDP in Benin," MPRA Paper 89545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Mehmet Ugur & Siew Ling Yew, 2017. "Does Government Size Affect Per-Capita Income Growth? A Hierarchical Meta-Regression Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 142-171, March.
    4. Vishal Sharma & Ashok Mittal, 2019. "Fiscal deficit, capital formation, and economic growth in India: a nonlinear ARDL model," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 46(4), pages 353-363, December.
    5. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Eu Chye, 2015. "Does tourism effectively stimulate Malaysia's economic growth?," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 158-163.
    6. Sushil Kumar Haldar, 2009. "Economic Growth in India Revisited," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 10(1), pages 105-126, January.
    7. Antonio Paradiso & Saten Kumar & B. Bhaskara Rao, 2013. "The growth effects of education in Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(27), pages 3843-3852, September.
    8. repec:mth:ijafr8:v:8:y:2018:i:3:p:29-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Xianfeng Huang & Ping Li & Richard Lotspeich, 2009. "The size of the SOE sector and macroeconomic performance: an empirical study based on Chinese provincial data," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 319-343, November.
    10. Mussarat Khan, 2016. "Contribution of female human capital in economic growth: an empirical analysis of Pakistan (1972–2012)," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 709-728, March.
    11. Saten Kumar & Gail Pacheco, 2010. "What Determines the Long run Growth in Kenya?," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2010_16, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    12. Palakiyèm Kpemoua, 2016. "Levels Of Education And Economic Performances Of Togo [Niveaux D’Education Et Performances Economiques Du Togo]," Working Papers halshs-01506650, HAL.
    13. Yasin Kuso & Muhia John Gachunga, 2019. "Impact of Tax Structures on Growth in Congo, Brazzaville," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 5(2), pages 108-113, June.
    14. Halkos, George & Paizanos, Epameinondas, 2015. "Fiscal policy and economic performance: A review of the theoretical and empirical literature," MPRA Paper 67737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Joel Alejandro Rosado & Mar a Isabel Alvarado S nchez, 2017. "From Population Age Structure and Savings Rate to Economic Growth: Evidence from Ecuador," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 352-361.
    16. Tiba, Sofien & Frikha, Mohamed, 2019. "The controversy of the resource curse and the environment in the SDGs background: The African context," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 437-452.
    17. Noman Arshed & Awais Anwar & Nabeela Kousar & Samra Bukhari, 2018. "Education Enrollment Level and Income Inequality: A Case of SAARC Economies," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 1211-1224, December.
    18. Catherine Bruneau & Pierre-Luis Girard, 2021. "Labor Productivity in France: Is the Slowdown of its Growth Inevitable or are there Levers to fight it?," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 7(1), pages 9-40, January.
    19. Kyriakos Emmanouilidis & Christos Karpetis, 2020. "The Defense–Growth Nexus: A Review of Time Series Methods and Empirical Results," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 86-104, January.
    20. Minea, Alexandru, 2008. "The Role of Public Spending in the Growth Theory Evolution," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(2), pages 99-120, June.
    21. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Bee Wah, 2014. "A revalidation of the savings–growth nexus in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 370-377.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economics; Fiscal deficit-Economic growth;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sch:wpaper:367. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: B B Chand (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iseccin.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.