An empirical model of volatility of returns and option pricing
AbstractThis paper reports several entirely new results on financial market dynamics and option pricing We observe that empirical distributions of returns are much better approximated by an exponential distribution than by a Gaussian. This exponential distribution of asset prices can be used to develop a new pricing model for options (in closed algebraic form) that is shown to provide valuations that agree very well with those used by traders. We show how the Fokker-Planck formulation of fluctuations can be used with a local volatility (diffusion coeffficient) to generate an exponential distribution for asset returns, and also how fat tails for extreme returns are generated dynamically by a simple generalization of our new volatility model. Nonuniqueness in deducing dynamics from empirical data is discussed and is shown to have no practical effect over time scales much less than one hundred years. We derive an option pricing pde and explain why itâs superfluous, because all information required to price options in agreement with the delta-hedge is already included in the Green function of the Fokker-Planck equation for a special choice of parameters. Finally, we also show how to calculate put and call prices for a stretched exponential returns density.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 with number 186.
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2002
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- McCauley, Joseph L. & Gunaratne, Gemunu H., 2003. "An empirical model of volatility of returns and option pricing," MPRA Paper 2161, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gemunu H. Gunaratne & Joseph L. McCauley, 2002. "A theory for Fluctuations in Stock Prices and Valuation of their Options," Papers cond-mat/0209475, arXiv.org.
- Decamps, Marc & De Schepper, Ann & Goovaerts, Marc, 2004. "Applications of δ-function perturbation to the pricing of derivative securities," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 342(3), pages 677-692.
- Seemann, Lars & Hua, Jia-Chen & McCauley, Joseph L. & Gunaratne, Gemunu H., 2012. "Ensemble vs. time averages in financial time series analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(23), pages 6024-6032.
- Bucsa, G. & Jovanovic, F. & Schinckus, C., 2011. "A unified model for price return distributions used in econophysics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(20), pages 3435-3443.
- Bassler, Kevin E. & McCauley, Joseph L. & Gunaratne, Gemunu H., 2006. "Nonstationary increments, scaling distributions, and variable diffusion processes in financial markets," MPRA Paper 2126, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- de Mattos Neto, Paulo S.G. & Silva, David A. & Ferreira, Tiago A.E. & Cavalcanti, George D.C., 2011. "Market volatility modeling for short time window," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(20), pages 3444-3453.
- Joesph L. McCauley, 2002. "Self-Financing, Replicating Hedging Strategies, an incomplete thermodynamic analogy," Papers cond-mat/0203304, arXiv.org.
- Giacomo Bormetti & Sofia Cazzaniga, 2011. "Multiplicative noise, fast convolution, and pricing," Papers 1107.1451, arXiv.org.
- McCauley, Joseph l., 2004. "Thermodynamic analogies in economics and finance: instability of markets," MPRA Paper 2159, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Shu-Heng Chen & Sai-Ping Li, 2011. "Econophysics: Bridges over a Turbulent Current," Papers 1107.5373, arXiv.org.
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