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Volatility Spillovers between the Equity Market and Foreign Exchange Market in South Africa

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  • Lumengo Bonga-Bonga
  • Jamela Hoveni

Abstract

This paper attempts to assess the extent of volatility spillovers between the equity market and the foreign exchange market in South Africa. The multi-step family of GARCH models are used for this end, whereby volatility shocks obtained from the mean equation estimation in each market are included in the conditional volatility of the other market, respectively. The appropriate volatility models for each market are selected, following criteria such as covariance stationarity, persistence in variance and leverage effects. The finding indicates that there is a unidirectional relationship in terms of volatility spillovers, from the equity market to the foreign exchange market. The paper supports the view that the extent of foreign participation in the South African equity market contributes to this pattern of volatility spillover.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economic Research Southern Africa in its series Working Papers with number 252.

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Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:252

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Keywords: equity market; foreign exchange market; spillover; GARCH models;

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  1. Keith Jefferis & Pako Thupayagale, 2008. "Long Memory In Southern African Stock Markets," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(3), pages 384-398, 09.
  2. Pan, Ming-Shiun & Fok, Robert Chi-Wing & Liu, Y. Angela, 2007. "Dynamic linkages between exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from East Asian markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 503-520.
  3. Zalewska-Mitura, Anna & Hall, Stephen G., 1999. "Examining the first stages of market performance: a test for evolving market efficiency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 1-12, July.
  4. Angelos Kanas, 2000. "Volatility Spillovers Between Stock Returns and Exchange Rate Changes: International Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3&4), pages 447-467.
  5. Sheng-Yung Yang & Shuh-Chyi Doong, 2004. "Price and Volatility Spillovers between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Empirical Evidence from the G-7 Countries," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 3(2), pages 139-153, August.
  6. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Y. & Smith, R.J., 1999. "Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long-run Relationships," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9907, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  7. Ajayi, Richard A & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1996. "On the Dynamic Relation between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 193-207, Summer.
  8. Jaeun Shin, 2005. "Stock Returns and Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 4(1), pages 31-43, April.
  9. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-34, April.
  10. Greenwood, Robin, 2005. "Short- and long-term demand curves for stocks: theory and evidence on the dynamics of arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 607-649, March.
  11. Naeem Muhammad & Abdul Rasheed, 2002. "Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Are they Related? Evidence from South Asian Countries," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 535-550.
  12. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  13. Chaker Aloui, 2007. "Price and volatility spillovers between exchange rates and stock indexes for the pre- and post-euro period," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(6), pages 669-685.
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