Forecasting U.S. Housing Starts Under Asymmetric Loss
AbstractSurvey data of forecasts of the housing market may provide a particularly rich data nvironment for researchers and policymakers to study developments in housing markets. Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125, 2005), we studied the properties of a large set of survey data of housing starts in the United States. We document the heterogeneity of forecasts, analyze the shape of forecasters’ loss function, study the rationality of forecasts, and the temporal variation in forecasts.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg in its series Working Paper with number 118/2012.
Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 27 Jun 2012
Date of revision:
Note: Housing starts; Loss function; Rationality of forecasts
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Housing starts; Loss function; Rationality of forecasts;
Other versions of this item:
- Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph R�lke & Georg Stadtmann, 2013. "Forecasting US housing starts under asymmetric loss," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 505-513, March.
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-07-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2012-07-08 (Forecasting)
- NEP-UPT-2012-07-08 (Utility Models & Prospect Theory)
- NEP-URE-2012-07-08 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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