Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

A Spatial MAS Simulation to Evaluate the Promotion of Electricity from Agricultural Biogas Plants in Germany

Contents:

Author Info

  • Sorda, Giovanni

    () (E.ON Energy Research Center, Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), RWTH Aachen University)

  • Sunak, Yasin

    () (E.ON Energy Research Center, Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), RWTH Aachen University)

  • Madlener, Reinhard

    () (E.ON Energy Research Center, Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), RWTH Aachen University)

Abstract

We investigate how changes in the support scheme may affect electricity generation from agricultural biogas Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plants in Germany. A recursive Multi-Agent System (MAS) for investment decision-making is coupled with Geographic Information System (GIS) data in order to simulate the spatial-temporal diffusion of agricultural biogas production. The adoption of CHP technology is contingent on a positive Net Present Value (NPV) calculation that accounts for the limited local availability of substrate resources. The spatial-temporal diffusion model considers three alternative plant sizes (150 kWel, 500 kWel and 1 MWel) and four heat use combinations (no heat use, local district heating, mobile storage and Organic Rankine Cycle process). The simulation period is twenty years. For illustration, we implement the model for the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia and Bavaria, for which we estimate an additional economic capacity potential of 370 MWel. We find that raising the feed-in payments only leads to minor increases in installed electric capacity and thus would only create windfall profits. By contrast, substantially lowered feed-in tariffs (-25%) reduce the additionally installed capacity by a marked 42%, whereas a more modest reduction (around -15%) has only a relatively small and subproportional impact on both installed capacity and the total amount of subsidies paid. The reason is that such a reduction incentivizes smaller, relatively more costly biogas plants. Modestly lowered feed-in tariffs lead to minor reductions in electric capacity, but at the same time the reductions also weigh little on the electricity bill of the end-consumer funding the subsidy scheme. Overall, we conclude that current feed-in payments are probably not too far off the optimum level.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.eonerc.rwth-aachen.de/global/show_document.asp?id=aaaaaaaaaacerwb
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN) in its series FCN Working Papers with number 1/2011.

as in new window
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2011_001

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://www.eonerc.rwth-aachen.de/fcn
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Biogas; Technological diffusion; MAS; GIS; Policy;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Harmsen - van Hout, Marjolein J.W. & Herings, P. Jean-Jacques & Dellaert, Benedict G.C., 2013. "Communication network formation with link specificity and value transferability," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 229(1), pages 199-211.
  2. Harmsen - van Hout, Marjolein J.W. & Dellaert, Benedict G.C. & Herings, P. Jean-Jacques, 2010. "Behavioral Effects in Individual Decisions of Network Formation: Complexity Reduces Payoff Orientation and Social Preferences," FCN Working Papers 5/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  3. Harmsen - van Hout, Marjolein J.W. & Herings, P. Jean-Jacques & Dellaert ,Benedict G.C., 2006. "The Structure of Online Consumer Communication Networks," Research Memoranda 028, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization.
  4. Lüschen, Andreas & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Economics of Biomass Co-Firing in New Hard Coal Power Plants in Germany," FCN Working Papers 23/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Dergiades, Theologos & Christofidou, Georgia & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "The Nexus between Natural Gas Spot and Futures Prices at NYMEX: What about Non-Linear Causality?," FCN Working Papers 17/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  2. Achtnicht, Martin & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Factors influencing German house owners' preferences on energy retrofits," ZEW Discussion Papers 12-042, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  3. Bernstein, Ronald & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Responsiveness of Residential Electricity Demand in OECD Countries: A Panel Cointegation and Causality Analysis," FCN Working Papers 8/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  4. Michelsen, Carl Christian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Homeowners' Motivation to Adopt a Residential Heating System: A Principal-Component Analysis," FCN Working Papers 17/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Jan 2013.
  5. Michelsen, Carl Christian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Homeowners' Preferences for Adopting Residential Heating Systems: A Discrete Choice Analysis for Germany," FCN Working Papers 9/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  6. Hackbarth, André & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Consumer Preferences for Alternative Fuel Vehicles: A Discrete Choice Analysis," FCN Working Papers 20/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  7. Sorda, Giovanni & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Cost-Effectiveness of Lignocellulose Biorefineries and their Impact on the Deciduous Wood Markets in Germany," FCN Working Papers 8/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  8. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Multi-Commodity Real Options Analysis of Power Plant Investments: Discounting Endogenous Risk Structures," FCN Working Papers 22/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  9. Ghosh, Gaurav & Shortle, James, 2012. "Managing Pollution Risk through Emissions Trading," FCN Working Papers 1/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  10. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Assessment of Clean-Coal Strategies: The Questionable Merits of Carbon Capture-Readiness," FCN Working Papers 18/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2011_001

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ronald Bernstein).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.